Learning from experience: An interdisciplinary field and modelling research program to predict the future of coastal ecosystems in a warmer, higher carbon world

气候变化和海洋酸化对沿海生态系统以及这些生态系统向社会提供的商品和服务构成严重威胁。在接下来的五年里，我将领导一个前沿的跨学科研究项目，以揭示珊瑚礁--地球上最受威胁的生态系统之一--能否学会适应或适应变暖和变化的海洋环境。这一结果对热带地区数百万依赖珊瑚礁获取食物、收入和海岸线保护的人来说至关重要。 我的研究团队将使用一个理想的、但在很大程度上没有人研究过的位于偏远太平洋的自然实验室来解决这些关键问题。多亏了厄尔尼诺现象，基里巴斯共和国赤道吉尔伯特群岛的珊瑚礁经历了异常高的年际温度变化，可能会使珊瑚适应更温暖的未来。然而，仅在几百公里外的吉尔伯特群岛、马绍尔群岛和图瓦卢的珊瑚礁，经历了更温和的气候。温度变化的这种不同寻常的梯度使我们能够隔离过去气候经验、人类干扰和其他关键变量对珊瑚对气候变化和海洋酸化的抵抗力和恢复能力的影响。与此同时，我的团队将开发全球历史数据集，以记录珊瑚礁和海洋的长期变化。然后，利用历史数据和我们的自然实验室的见解，我们将开发一个全面的系统来预测地球上珊瑚礁的未来。 这项研究将确定海洋环境的关键变化，以及最有可能在更温暖、更高二氧化碳的世界中持续存在的物种和珊瑚礁。这些成果可以直接为海洋政策、地方和国际一级海洋保护区的设计以及加拿大为帮助发展中国家应对气候变化带来的威胁而计划进行的投资提供信息。

Climate change and ocean acidification pose a critical threat to coastal ecosystems and the goods and services those ecosystems provide to society. Over the next five years, I will lead a cutting-edge interdisciplinary research program to uncover whether coral reefs, among the most threatened ecosystems on the planet, can learn to adapt or acclimate to the warming and changing ocean environment. The results are critical to the millions of people across the tropics that depend on coral reefs for food, income and shoreline protection. My research team will address these vital questions using an ideal, yet largely unstudied, natural laboratory located in the remote Pacific Ocean. Thanks to El Nino, the coral reefs of the equatorial Gilbert Islands in the Republic of Kiribati experience abnormally high year-to-year temperature variability, possibly conditioning the corals to cope with a warmer future. However, coral reefs only a few hundred kilometers away, in the outer Gilbert Islands, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, experience a more benign climate. This unusual gradient in temperature variability allows us to isolate the effect of past climate experience, human disturbances and other key variables on coral resistance and resilience to climate change and ocean acidification. At the same time, my team will develop historical global datasets to document long-term changes in coral reefs and the oceans. Then, using insights from the historical data and our natural laboratory, we will develop a comprehensive system for predicting the future of coral reefs across the planet. This research will identify key changes in the ocean environment and also the species and coral reefs most likely to persist in warmer, higher carbon dioxide world. The results can directly inform marine policy, the design of marine protected areas at the local and international level, and planned investments by Canada to help the developing world respond to threats posed by climate change.