Ocean warming, sea-level rise and climate change impacts in the Pacific region

海洋在气候变化中起着核心作用。它吸收了人类产生的大部分额外热量，增强了温室效应。海洋变暖和相关的海平面上升对沿海生态系统和沿海社区构成严重威胁。然而，尽管过去十年取得了进展，但关于海洋变化的大部分研究仍然集中在绘制平均条件变化或预期影响的地图上。为了为未来做好准备，我们需要更好地了解海洋中的极端事件，以及生态系统和海岸线将如何应对。海洋温度和海平面极端值是如何变化的？像珊瑚礁这样受到威胁的沿海生态系统能适应吗？适应的代价是什么？这对易受海平面上升影响的低洼地区意味着什么？在接下来的五年里，我建议通过一个创新的项目，在气候科学、海洋学、生态学和地貌学的界面上进行实地研究和建模研究，来回答这些问题。这四个相互关联的目标是：1)评估海洋中相对于陆地的热浪结构的变化，并改进全球模式对未来的预测；2)推进珊瑚“白化”的全球数据集和模型，以确定潜在的“多云”避难所；3)评估珊瑚礁恢复力和海岸线保护之间的权衡，以防止海平面上升；4)估计太平洋岛屿的海平面“负债”或“盈余”。为了改善近期对海平面上升和海岸线影响的预测。这些目标将全球和区域尺度的建模和分析与精心挑选的自然实验室中基于水下潜水的实地研究相结合：基里巴斯共和国的低洼珊瑚礁岛和赤道太平洋中部的马绍尔群岛，那里的厄尔Niño /南方涛动造成了温度、洋流和海平面的独特变化梯度。该项目将解决新的研究问题，并产生与决策相关的产品，这些产品可以为适应规划、海洋保护和减少灾害风险提供信息。该项目的另一个创新之处在于，它将培养一支由研究生、本科生和博士后组成的团队，利用不同学科的前沿研究技术，并为他们提供知识翻译的机会。我们将建立一系列可公开使用的数据库，包括全球历史珊瑚白化数据库、全球校正偏差的海洋温度预测和太平洋岛屿海平面预测，并利用其他资金与太平洋岛屿地区的利益攸关方举行简报会和交流。学员将从该项目中获得广泛的技能，并为从事研究、教育和将科学转化为政策和管理的职业做好充分准备。

The ocean plays a central role in climate change. It is absorbing the majority of extra heat generated by human enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Warming of the ocean, and the associated rise in sea level, poses a critical threat to coastal ecosystems and coastal communities. Yet despite advances over the past decade, much of the research on our changing ocean is still focused on mapping changes in average conditions or expected impacts. In order to prepare for the future, we need a better understanding of extreme events in the ocean and how ecosystems and shorelines will respond. How are ocean temperature and sea level extremes changing? Can threatened coastal ecosystems like coral reefs adapt? What are the trade-offs of adaptation? What are the implications for low-lying communities vulnerable to rising seas? Over the next five years, I propose to answer these questions through an innovative program of field and modelling research at the interface of climate science, oceanography, ecology and geomorphology. The four linked objectives are i) to assess the changing structure of heat waves in the ocean, relative to those on land, and refine global model projections of the future, ii) to advance global datasets and models of coral "bleaching" in order to identify potential "cloudy" refugia, iii) to evaluate trade-offs between coral reef resilience and shoreline protection from sea-level rise, and iv) to estimate sea-level "debt" or "surplus" across the Pacific Islands, in order to improve near-term projections of sea-level rise and shoreline impacts. These objectives integrate global- and regional-scale modelling and analysis with SCUBA-based field research in a carefully-selected natural laboratory: the low-lying coral reef islands of Republics of Kiribati and the Marshall Islands in the central equatorial Pacific, where the El Niño / Southern Oscillation creates a unique gradient of variability in temperatures, currents, and sea level. This program will address novel research questions and generate decision-relevant products which can inform adaptation planning, marine conservation and disaster risk reduction. The program is also novel in that it will train a team of graduate students, undergraduate students and postdoctoral fellows in cutting-edge research techniques drawn from different disciplines, as well as provide them with knowledge translation opportunities. We will create a series of publicly available databases, including a global historical coral bleaching database, global bias-corrected ocean temperature projections, and sea-level projections for Pacific Islands, and leverage other funding to hold briefings and exchanges with stakeholders in the Pacific Islands region. Trainees will emerge from the program with a broad skill set and be well equipped for careers in research, education and translating science into policy and management.