Ocean warming, sea-level rise and climate change impacts in the Pacific region

海洋在气候变化中起着核心作用。它吸收了人类增强温室效应所产生的大部分额外热量。海洋变暖以及随之而来的海平面上升对沿海生态系统和沿海社区构成严重威胁。然而，尽管在过去十年中取得了进展，但关于我们不断变化的海洋的大部分研究仍然集中在绘制平均条件或预期影响的变化图上。为了为未来做好准备，我们需要更好地了解海洋中的极端事件以及生态系统和海岸线将如何应对。海洋温度和海平面极端值是如何变化的？受到威胁的沿海生态系统，如珊瑚礁，能适应吗？适应的权衡是什么？这对容易受到海平面上升影响的低洼社区意味着什么？在接下来的五年里，我建议通过在气候科学、海洋学、生态学和地貌学的界面上进行实地和模型研究的创新项目来回答这些问题。这四个相互关联的目标是：1)评估海洋热浪相对于陆地热浪的变化结构，完善对未来的全球模式预测；2)推进全球珊瑚“白化”数据集和模式，以确定潜在的“多云”避难所；3)评估珊瑚礁复原力与防止海平面上升对海岸线的保护之间的权衡；4)估计整个太平洋岛屿的海平面“债务”或“盈余”，以便改进对海平面上升和海岸线影响的近期预测。这些目标将全球和区域规模的建模和分析与在精心挑选的自然实验室--赤道太平洋中部基里巴斯共和国和马绍尔群岛的低洼珊瑚礁岛屿--进行的基于潜水的实地研究结合在一起，在那里厄尔尼诺/南方涛动在温度、洋流和海平面上创造了独特的变率梯度。该计划将解决新的研究问题，并产生与决策相关的产品，为适应规划、海洋保护和减少灾害风险提供信息。该项目也很新颖，它将培训一支由研究生、本科生和博士后研究员组成的团队，学习来自不同学科的尖端研究技术，并为他们提供知识翻译机会。我们将建立一系列公开可用的数据库，包括全球珊瑚白化历史数据库、全球偏差校正的海温预测和太平洋岛屿海平面预测，并利用其他资金与太平洋岛屿地区的利益攸关方举行简报会和交流。学员将从该项目中脱颖而出，掌握广泛的技能，并为研究、教育以及将科学转化为政策和管理方面的职业做好准备。

The ocean plays a central role in climate change. It is absorbing the majority of extra heat generated by human enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Warming of the ocean, and the associated rise in sea level, poses a critical threat to coastal ecosystems and coastal communities. Yet despite advances over the past decade, much of the research on our changing ocean is still focused on mapping changes in average conditions or expected impacts. In order to prepare for the future, we need a better understanding of extreme events in the ocean and how ecosystems and shorelines will respond. How are ocean temperature and sea level extremes changing? Can threatened coastal ecosystems like coral reefs adapt? What are the trade-offs of adaptation? What are the implications for low-lying communities vulnerable to rising seas? Over the next five years, I propose to answer these questions through an innovative program of field and modelling research at the interface of climate science, oceanography, ecology and geomorphology. The four linked objectives are i) to assess the changing structure of heat waves in the ocean, relative to those on land, and refine global model projections of the future, ii) to advance global datasets and models of coral "bleaching" in order to identify potential "cloudy" refugia, iii) to evaluate trade-offs between coral reef resilience and shoreline protection from sea-level rise, and iv) to estimate sea-level "debt" or "surplus" across the Pacific Islands, in order to improve near-term projections of sea-level rise and shoreline impacts. These objectives integrate global- and regional-scale modelling and analysis with SCUBA-based field research in a carefully-selected natural laboratory: the low-lying coral reef islands of Republics of Kiribati and the Marshall Islands in the central equatorial Pacific, where the El Niño / Southern Oscillation creates a unique gradient of variability in temperatures, currents, and sea level. This program will address novel research questions and generate decision-relevant products which can inform adaptation planning, marine conservation and disaster risk reduction. The program is also novel in that it will train a team of graduate students, undergraduate students and postdoctoral fellows in cutting-edge research techniques drawn from different disciplines, as well as provide them with knowledge translation opportunities. We will create a series of publicly available databases, including a global historical coral bleaching database, global bias-corrected ocean temperature projections, and sea-level projections for Pacific Islands, and leverage other funding to hold briefings and exchanges with stakeholders in the Pacific Islands region. Trainees will emerge from the program with a broad skill set and be well equipped for careers in research, education and translating science into policy and management.