Ocean warming, sea-level rise and climate change impacts in the Pacific region

海洋在气候变化中发挥着核心作用。它吸收了人类增加温室效应所产生的大部分额外热量。海洋变暖以及相关的海平面上升对沿海生态系统和沿海社区构成严重威胁。然而，尽管在过去十年中取得了进展，但对我们不断变化的海洋的大部分研究仍然集中在绘制平均条件或预期影响的变化上。为了为未来做好准备，我们需要更好地了解海洋中的极端事件以及生态系统和海岸线将如何应对。海洋温度和海平面的极端变化是如何发生的？珊瑚礁等受威胁的沿海生态系统能否适应？适应的利弊是什么？对易受海平面上升影响的低洼社区有什么影响？在接下来的五年里，我建议通过在气候科学，海洋学，生态学和地貌学的接口领域和建模研究的创新计划来回答这些问题。四个相互关联的目标是：i）评估海洋中热浪相对于陆地上热浪的变化结构，并完善未来的全球模型预测，ii）推进珊瑚“漂白”的全球数据集和模型，以确定潜在的“多云”庇护所，iii）评估珊瑚礁恢复力和海岸线保护免受海平面上升影响之间的权衡，㈣估计整个太平洋岛屿的海平面“负债”或“盈余”，以便改进对海平面上升和海岸线影响的近期预测。这些目标将全球和区域规模的建模和分析与在精心挑选的自然实验室进行的以水下呼吸器为基础的实地研究结合起来：基里巴斯共和国和马歇尔群岛位于赤道太平洋中部的低洼珊瑚礁岛屿，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动在那里造成了独特的温度、海流和海平面变化梯度。该计划将解决新的研究问题，并产生决策相关的产品，可以为适应规划，海洋保护和减少灾害风险提供信息。该计划也很新颖，因为它将培养一个由研究生，本科生和博士后组成的团队，掌握来自不同学科的尖端研究技术，并为他们提供知识翻译机会。我们将建立一系列公开数据库，包括全球历史珊瑚白化数据库、全球偏差校正海洋温度预测和太平洋岛屿海平面预测，并利用其他资金与太平洋岛屿区域的利益攸关方举行简报会和交流。学员将从该计划中脱颖而出，拥有广泛的技能，并为研究，教育和将科学转化为政策和管理的职业生涯做好准备。

The ocean plays a central role in climate change. It is absorbing the majority of extra heat generated by human enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Warming of the ocean, and the associated rise in sea level, poses a critical threat to coastal ecosystems and coastal communities. Yet despite advances over the past decade, much of the research on our changing ocean is still focused on mapping changes in average conditions or expected impacts. In order to prepare for the future, we need a better understanding of extreme events in the ocean and how ecosystems and shorelines will respond. How are ocean temperature and sea level extremes changing? Can threatened coastal ecosystems like coral reefs adapt? What are the trade-offs of adaptation? What are the implications for low-lying communities vulnerable to rising seas? Over the next five years, I propose to answer these questions through an innovative program of field and modelling research at the interface of climate science, oceanography, ecology and geomorphology. The four linked objectives are i) to assess the changing structure of heat waves in the ocean, relative to those on land, and refine global model projections of the future, ii) to advance global datasets and models of coral "bleaching" in order to identify potential "cloudy" refugia, iii) to evaluate trade-offs between coral reef resilience and shoreline protection from sea-level rise, and iv) to estimate sea-level "debt" or "surplus" across the Pacific Islands, in order to improve near-term projections of sea-level rise and shoreline impacts. These objectives integrate global- and regional-scale modelling and analysis with SCUBA-based field research in a carefully-selected natural laboratory: the low-lying coral reef islands of Republics of Kiribati and the Marshall Islands in the central equatorial Pacific, where the El Niño / Southern Oscillation creates a unique gradient of variability in temperatures, currents, and sea level. This program will address novel research questions and generate decision-relevant products which can inform adaptation planning, marine conservation and disaster risk reduction. The program is also novel in that it will train a team of graduate students, undergraduate students and postdoctoral fellows in cutting-edge research techniques drawn from different disciplines, as well as provide them with knowledge translation opportunities. We will create a series of publicly available databases, including a global historical coral bleaching database, global bias-corrected ocean temperature projections, and sea-level projections for Pacific Islands, and leverage other funding to hold briefings and exchanges with stakeholders in the Pacific Islands region. Trainees will emerge from the program with a broad skill set and be well equipped for careers in research, education and translating science into policy and management.