Ocean warming, sea-level rise and climate change impacts in the Pacific region

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The ocean plays a central role in climate change. It is absorbing the majority of extra heat generated by human enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Warming of the ocean, and the associated rise in sea level, poses a critical threat to coastal ecosystems and coastal communities. Yet despite advances over the past decade, much of the research on our changing ocean is still focused on mapping changes in average conditions or expected impacts. In order to prepare for the future, we need a better understanding of extreme events in the ocean and how ecosystems and shorelines will respond. How are ocean temperature and sea level extremes changing? Can threatened coastal ecosystems like coral reefs adapt? What are the trade-offs of adaptation? What are the implications for low-lying communities vulnerable to rising seas?******Over the next five years, I propose to answer these questions through an innovative program of field and modelling research at the interface of climate science, oceanography, ecology and geomorphology. The four linked objectives are i) to assess the changing structure of heat waves in the ocean, relative to those on land, and refine global model projections of the future, ii) to advance global datasets and models of coral “bleaching” in order to identify potential “cloudy” refugia, iii) to evaluate trade-offs between coral reef resilience and shoreline protection from sea-level rise, and iv) to estimate sea-level “debt” or “surplus” across the Pacific Islands, in order to improve near-term projections of sea-level rise and shoreline impacts. These objectives integrate global- and regional-scale modelling and analysis with SCUBA-based field research in a carefully-selected natural laboratory: the low-lying coral reef islands of Republics of Kiribati and the Marshall Islands in the central equatorial Pacific, where the El Nio / Southern Oscillation creates a unique gradient of variability in temperatures, currents, and sea level.******This program will address novel research questions and generate decision-relevant products which can inform adaptation planning, marine conservation and disaster risk reduction. The program is also novel in that it will train a team of graduate students, undergraduate students and postdoctoral fellows in cutting-edge research techniques drawn from different disciplines, as well as provide them with knowledge translation opportunities. We will create a series of publicly available databases, including a global historical coral bleaching database, global bias-corrected ocean temperature projections, and sea-level projections for Pacific Islands, and leverage other funding to hold briefings and exchanges with stakeholders in the Pacific Islands region. Trainees will emerge from the program with a broad skill set and be well equipped for careers in research, education and translating science into policy and management.**