A microscopic approach for the behavioural analysis of sustainable modes of transportation

可持续交通方式行为分析的微观方法

• 批准号: 402200-2011
• 负责人: Ismail, KarimAldin
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: Carleton University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=573192
• 关键词: microscopic; approach; behavioural; analysis; sustainable

The cost of road fatalities on Canadian roads is estimated to be approximately $63 billion/year. The cost borne by non-motorized road users is often underestimated. Approximately, pedestrians and cyclists constitute 15% collision-induced fatalities. In addition, pedestrians and cyclists face an elevated risk of injury and death when involved in road collisions. For example, pedestrian-involved collisions constitute only 2% of total collision, however they make up approximately 7 times more of total fatalities. The risk of serious injury for cyclists is estimated to be up to 70 times more than auto passengers and drivers. Underreporting of pedestrian- and cyclist-involved collisions has been recognized in the literature. It is likely that previous figures reflect only a part of the risk of collision facing pedestrians and cyclists in Canada. Unfortunately, this heavy toll is not matched with precise engineering knowledge of the safety implications of pedestrian- and cyclist-oriented safety treatments. This research is a mission to develop novel safety analysis techniques and investigate the safety implications of several safety treatments. Besides safety issues, the proposed research focuses on pedestrian modelling. This topic has not received due focus in a Canadian context. The practical contexts in Canadian environment include crowd management, evacuation studies, and efficient design of urban spaces. The proposed model moves a step forward from the literature by focusing on the decision mechanism that controls pedestrians' movements. The proposed research will also address one of the fundamental weaknesses in the literature by focusing on model calibration and rigorous validation. The combined outcome of the proposed research programs will be precise understanding of the safety of non-motorized modes and more reliable pedestrian models.

加拿大道路交通事故死亡人数估计每年约为630亿加元。非机动道路使用者承担的成本往往被低估。大约，行人和骑自行车的人构成15%的碰撞引起的死亡。此外，行人和骑自行车的人在发生道路碰撞时面临更高的受伤和死亡风险。例如，涉及飞行员的碰撞仅占碰撞总数的2%，但它们占总死亡人数的约7倍。据估计，骑自行车的人严重受伤的风险是汽车乘客和司机的70倍。文献中已经认识到行人和骑自行车者参与的碰撞报告不足。以前的数据可能只反映了加拿大行人和骑自行车者面临的部分碰撞风险。不幸的是，这种沉重的代价与行人和骑自行车者导向的安全处理的安全影响的精确工程知识不匹配。本研究的使命是开发新的安全分析技术，并调查几种安全治疗的安全性影响。 除了安全问题，拟议的研究重点是行人建模。在加拿大，这一专题没有得到应有的重视。加拿大环境中的实践背景包括人群管理，疏散研究和城市空间的有效设计。所提出的模型从文献中向前迈进了一步，专注于控制行人运动的决策机制。拟议的研究还将通过关注模型校准和严格验证来解决文献中的一个根本弱点。拟议研究计划的综合成果将是对非机动车模式安全性的准确理解和更可靠的行人模型。