Atmospheric circulation patterns in warmer worlds

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Human activities are responsible for recent observed global warming, and the Earth is becoming a warmer world. However, projections of future regional and continental scale climate change remain highly uncertain. This presents a serious challenge because predictions at these scales are most useful for governments, society and industry. The objective of this research program is to understand the physical processes that control regional climate change over North America and Europe, so that we can make more accurate predictions. The Earth has experienced warmer worlds before, and this research program will also use evidence from these past epochs as a guide to the future. A particular geological period 3 million years before present provides an excellent analogue for how the modern climate might evolve during the next century. Data from the period show that temperatures were 2-3 C warmer and sea-level was 15-25 m higher than today. Regional patterns of temperature and precipitation are often linked to persistent anomalous high and low pressure systems known as teleconnections. Teleconnections are of significant interest to climate researchers because they can be predictable months, years or even decades ahead. This is because teleconnections are often caused by long-lived thermal anomalies a long distance away, for example warming at the tropical ocean surface. This research program makes extensive use of climate models to study the changes to teleconnections and their influence on regional climate. The novel approach is to use these models to investigate both the Earth's geological past and its immediate future. The outcome of these modelling experiments will help to improve predictions of regional temperature and precipitation change over Canada during the coming century, which would bring significant benefits to society and industry. The research program will also provide essential training in climate modelling and analysis to the next generation of scientists.