Atmospheric circulation patterns in warmer worlds

人类活动对最近观测到的全球变暖负有责任，地球正在成为一个更温暖的世界。然而，对未来区域和大陆尺度气候变化的预估仍然高度不确定。这是一个严峻的挑战，因为这种规模的预测对政府、社会和行业最有用。这项研究计划的目的是了解控制北美和欧洲区域气候变化的物理过程，以便我们能够做出更准确的预测。**地球以前经历过更温暖的世界，这个研究项目也将使用这些过去时代的证据作为未来的指导。距今300万年前的一个特定地质时期为下个世纪现代气候的演变提供了一个极好的类比。这一时期的数据表明，当时的气温比现在高2-3摄氏度，海平面比现在高15-25米。**温度和降水的区域模式通常与持续的异常高压和低压系统有关，称为遥相关。气候研究人员对远程联系非常感兴趣，因为它们可以提前几个月、几年甚至几十年进行预测。这是因为遥相关通常是由远距离的长期热异常引起的，例如热带海洋表面变暖。本研究项目广泛利用气候模式研究遥相关的变化及其对区域气候的影响。新颖的方法是利用这些模型来研究地球的地质过去和不久的将来。**这些模拟实验的结果将有助于改进对下个世纪加拿大区域温度和降水变化的预测，这将给社会和工业带来重大利益。研究项目还将提供必要的培训在气候建模和分析下一代的科学家 .******************************************************

Human activities are responsible for recent observed global warming, and the Earth is becoming a warmer world. However, projections of future regional and continental scale climate change remain highly uncertain. This presents a serious challenge because predictions at these scales are most useful for governments, society and industry. The objective of this research program is to understand the physical processes that control regional climate change over North America and Europe, so that we can make more accurate predictions.** The Earth has experienced warmer worlds before, and this research program will also use evidence from these past epochs as a guide to the future. A particular geological period 3 million years before present provides an excellent analogue for how the modern climate might evolve during the next century. Data from the period show that temperatures were 2-3 C warmer and sea-level was 15-25 m higher than today. ** Regional patterns of temperature and precipitation are often linked to persistent anomalous high and low pressure systems known as teleconnections. Teleconnections are of significant interest to climate researchers because they can be predictable months, years or even decades ahead. This is because teleconnections are often caused by long-lived thermal anomalies a long distance away, for example warming at the tropical ocean surface. This research program makes extensive use of climate models to study the changes to teleconnections and their influence on regional climate. The novel approach is to use these models to investigate both the Earth's geological past and its immediate future. ** The outcome of these modelling experiments will help to improve predictions of regional temperature and precipitation change over Canada during the coming century, which would bring significant benefits to society and industry. The research program will also provide essential training in climate modelling and analysis to the next generation of scientists.******************************************************