Simplified framework to forecast multimodal travel demand for mixed-use developments

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Evaluating traffic impacts of urban development is a regular and routine exercise of transportation planningagencies. Because of the incremental development processes in urban planning, it is sometimes impractical toemploy regional land use and transportation interaction models to evaluate impacts of individual developmentson the urban transportation system. So, a common practice is to use a 'Trip Generation Manual' to quicklyevaluate traffic impacts of any individual development in urban centres. Such a manual provides a simplifiedtable of approximate changes in an aggregate number of trips (one-way movement from one location toanother) that may be induced by the specific type of development (e.g., residential building, commercialbuilding, shopping malls, hospital etc.). The widely used manual for such trip generation is developed byInstitute of Transportation Engineers (ITS) based on development histories in the US. Two major drawbacks ofusing this manual in Canada are:-The approximate traffic impacts depicted by the manual as trip generation rates may not necessarily representCanadian urban contexts.-It does not consider the local contexts, such as, transit accessibility, urban form, socio-economic conditions,etc., that may vary from urban area to urban area even within Canada.So, the use of the ITE trip generation manual is leading to erroneous and often misleading results of trafficimpact evaluations in Canadian urban centres. This research will take the Greater Toronto Area as the studyarea and develop a statistical model of traffic impacts (in terms of trip generation by different modes) at variousparts of the study area. The model will take the local context of urban centres in terms of detailed land useattributes and transit accessibility related variables to explain the impacts of traffic demand in terms of changesin trip generation corresponding to various categories of urban development. The developed model willshowcase the use of a region-specific model as opposed to the naïve practice of using trip generation