Simplified framework to forecast multimodal travel demand for mixed-use developments

预测混合用途开发的多式联运需求的简化框架

• 批准号: 508788-2017
• 负责人: NurulHabib, Khandker
• 金额: $ 1.38万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=618066
• 关键词: Simplified; framework; forecast; multimodal; travel

Evaluating traffic impacts of urban development is a regular and routine exercise of transportation planningagencies. Because of the incremental development processes in urban planning, it is sometimes impractical toemploy regional land use and transportation interaction models to evaluate impacts of individual developmentson the urban transportation system. So, a common practice is to use a 'Trip Generation Manual' to quicklyevaluate traffic impacts of any individual development in urban centres. Such a manual provides a simplifiedtable of approximate changes in an aggregate number of trips (one-way movement from one location toanother) that may be induced by the specific type of development (e.g., residential building, commercialbuilding, shopping malls, hospital etc.). The widely used manual for such trip generation is developed byInstitute of Transportation Engineers (ITS) based on development histories in the US. Two major drawbacks ofusing this manual in Canada are:-The approximate traffic impacts depicted by the manual as trip generation rates may not necessarily representCanadian urban contexts.-It does not consider the local contexts, such as, transit accessibility, urban form, socio-economic conditions,etc., that may vary from urban area to urban area even within Canada.So, the use of the ITE trip generation manual is leading to erroneous and often misleading results of trafficimpact evaluations in Canadian urban centres. This research will take the Greater Toronto Area as the studyarea and develop a statistical model of traffic impacts (in terms of trip generation by different modes) at variousparts of the study area. The model will take the local context of urban centres in terms of detailed land useattributes and transit accessibility related variables to explain the impacts of traffic demand in terms of changesin trip generation corresponding to various categories of urban development. The developed model willshowcase the use of a region-specific model as opposed to the naïve practice of using trip generation

评价城市发展对交通的影响是交通规划机构的一项常规工作。由于城市规划中的增量开发过程，采用区域土地利用和交通相互作用模型来评估单个开发项目对城市交通系统的影响有时是不切实际的。因此，一个常见的做法是使用“行程生成手册”来快速评估城市中心任何单个开发项目的交通影响。这样的手册提供了一个可能由特定类型的开发（例如，住宅楼、商业楼、购物中心、医院等）。交通工程师协会（ITS）根据美国的发展历史，开发了这种出行生成的广泛使用的手册。在加拿大使用本手册的两个主要缺点是：-手册中描述的出行产生率的近似交通影响可能不一定代表加拿大的城市环境。它没有考虑到当地的情况，如过境便利性、城市形态、社会经济条件等，因此，使用ITE出行生成手册会导致加拿大城市中心交通影响评估的错误和经常误导的结果。本研究将以大多伦多地区为研究区域，并在研究区域的各个部分建立交通影响的统计模型（根据不同交通方式产生的出行）。该模型将采取详细的土地利用属性和交通可达性相关变量的城市中心的地方背景，以解释交通需求的影响，在行程生成的变化对应于各种类型的城市发展。开发的模型将展示使用特定区域的模型，而不是使用行程生成的天真做法