DATA AUGMENTATION FOR AN INTEGRATED ACITIVITY-TRAVEL DEMAND AND MULTIMODAL TRAFFIC MICROSIMULATION MODEL

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The proposed research will develop an integrated microsimulation model of activity-travel demand and multimodal traffic flow that can allow the minute-by-minute simulation of an urban transportation system at the individual parcel level (postal code) of spatial disaggregation. Such models have extensive data requirements, and this issue will be addressed by developing data augmentation methods that will collect small-scale but detailed and accurate activity-travel data using smartphone-based applications and fusing it with regional household travel survey data. The study area will be the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) as the region already has an established household travel survey data collection program and a full prototype multimodal traffic microsimulation model. The major objectives of the research are to: 1)develop new methods for data augmentation by fusing multiple sources of data, 2)estimate and calibrate a consistent, coordinated set of probabilistic behavioural models based on the fused data, 3)develop an integrated multimodal travel demand simulation system, and 4)apply the integrated simulation system to the analysis of transportation policy. The first major objective can be further elaborated as follows: (a)Developing a smartphone-based automated activity-travel data collection tool that can accurately collect detailed spatio-temporal movement information. This will reduce the survey response burden and create a truly pervasive travel data collection method. (b)Developing a data augmentation process to supplement regional household travel survey data with small-scale detailed data. This will enrich the large-sample household travel survey by filling in missing and more disaggregate information. The second and third long-term objectives can be further elaborated as follows: (c)Developing a microsimulation framework that seamlessly integrates peoples' demand for activity-travel within a multimodal (road and public transport) transportation network considering temporal variations of traffic flow in the network within a day. (d)Estimating and validating econometric models for all components of this modelling framework by using augmented activity-travel datasets. Component econometric choice models include fully comprehensive activity generation and scheduling models containing dynamic parcel-based activity location choice models and tour-based mode choice models. Models will be household-based and will consider intra-household resource and task allocations. All of these objectives have both short- and long-term implications. In the short-term, a microsimulation framework will be developed and component models will be estimated for the GTHA. In the long-term, the modelling framework will evolve into a standard transportation demand modelling system for regional-scale planning and policy analysis. The regional-scale dynamic passenger travel demand model will be unique in Canada and can be used as a template to develop similar models for other regions in Canada. The model will be useful in evaluating a variety of transportation policies and infrastructure improvement options that are under consideration by various levels of government in Canada. These include road pricing, alternative network infrasture renewal options (e.g., building subway/metro relief lines, replacing old elevated expressways with new expressways or combinations of highways and transit elements) and alternative land use bylaws in urban areas to balance urban systems and minimize social exclusion. The model will also be able to accurately evaluate various travel demand management policies, e.g. carpooling incentives, flexible office hour option, telecommuting options, etc.