Improving Earthquake Ground Motion Prediction Across Canada

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There is a lot of uncertainty in earthquake ground motion prediction: How will the earthquake rupture propagate in time and space?, What will be the distribution of earthquake shaking?, Will my building withstand the shaking? The long-term vision of my research program is to improve prediction of earthquake ground shaking across Canada, in particular understanding how earthquake waves are altered as they travel through the earth’s geologic layers along their path (regional scale) and at a surface site (local scale). To achieve these goals, I will develop and apply state-of-the-art geophysical techniques: field-based microtremor methods and theoretical 3D wave propagation modelling. Estimating the impact or consequences of an earthquake depends directly on estimates of earthquake ground shaking, which are reliant on understanding site response and geological amplifications. This understanding will inform a range of multi-disciplinary works aimed at estimating and mitigating potential earthquake losses in the forms of casualties, building damage, and system interruptions.