Assessing climate change impacts on timber resource availability in western-central Canada: economic implications and mitigation

北方森林对数百万加拿大人的生计至关重要。大气温室气体浓度上升导致的全球气候变化——在北方地区表现为变暖速度是全球平均速度的两倍，并改变了降水模式——被广泛认为是对加拿大森林和与森林有关的经济未来的最大威胁之一。最近的研究表明，气候变化导致净生物量变化下降，原因是树木死亡率增加，同时生长很少或减少。然而，目前尚不清楚气候变化如何影响和将影响与木材供应相关的森林属性，包括单个物种和林分水平的生产力，以及树种/性状多样性。此外，缺乏指导森林管理者减轻气候变化影响的知识。拟议研究的目标是：(i)研究加拿大中西部的北方森林已经和将如何受到全球气候变化的影响；探索缓解气候变化压力的战略；（三）开发模型，评估气候变化对未来木材供应和经济指标的影响。我们将与加拿大西部和中部的主要林产品生产商以及政府森林管理机构合作，确定长期、反复测量的森林地块和种源试验。我们的研究小组将收集新的测量数据，并利用这些森林地块的历史数据和实验数据以及经济数据，对过去60年来森林变化的程度进行实证评估。我们将以这些数据为基础，根据预测的气候变化情景，对森林在21世纪的变化进行建模。这项研究将由一组有成就的研究人员进行，并将培养六名高素质的人员。结果将在同行评议的期刊、论文、会议和合作伙伴主导的研讨会上传播，并立即转移到我们的支持组织。该项目将大大提高我们对中西部北方森林过去和未来对气候变化的反应的认识，并为应对这些反应的缓解战略提供信息。

The boreal forest is vital to the livelihoods of millions of Canadians. Global climate change from rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations-manifested in the boreal region as warming at twice the rate of the global average and altered precipitation patterns-is widely recognized as among the greatest threats to the future of forests and the forest-related economy in Canada. Recent studies show climate change-induced declines in net biomass change as a result of increased tree mortality accompanied by little or decreased growth. However, it remains unclear how climate change has affected and will affect forest attributes related to wood supply, including individual species and stand-level productivity, and tree species/trait diversity. Moreover, there is lack of knowledge to guide forest managers in mitigating climate change impacts. The objectives of the proposed research are to (i) examine how western-central boreal forests in Canada have been and will be affected by global climate change; (ii) explore strategies to mitigate climate change stresses; and (iii) develop models to assess the consequences of climate change on future wood supply and economic metrics. We will partner with key forest products producers in western and central Canada and government forest management agencies to identify long-term, repeatedly measured forest plots and provenance trials. Our research team will collect fresh measurements and use historic data from these forest plots and experimental trials, as well as economic data, to empirically assess the extent of forest changes during the past six decades. We will use these data as a basis from which to model how the forest could change in the 21st century based on projected climate change scenarios. The research will be conducted by a team of accomplished researchers and will train six highly qualified personnel. Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, theses, conferences, and partner-led workshops and immediately transferred to our supporting organizations. This project will significantly improve our understanding of past and future responses of western-central boreal forests to climate change, and inform mitigation strategies for coping with these responses.