Assessing climate change impacts on timber resource availability in western-central Canada: economic implications and mitigation

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The boreal forest is vital to the livelihoods of millions of Canadians. Global climate change from rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations-manifested in the boreal region as warming at twice the rate of the global average and altered precipitation patterns-is widely recognized as among the greatest threats to the future of forests and the forest-related economy in Canada. Recent studies show climate change-induced declines in net biomass change as a result of increased tree mortality accompanied by little or decreased growth. However, it remains unclear how climate change has affected and will affect forest attributes related to wood supply, including individual species and stand-level productivity, and tree species/trait diversity. Moreover, there is lack of knowledge to guide forest managers in mitigating climate change impacts. The objectives of the proposed research are to (i) examine how western-central boreal forests in Canada have been and will be affected by global climate change; (ii) explore strategies to mitigate climate change stresses; and (iii) develop models to assess the consequences of climate change on future wood supply and economic metrics. We will partner with key forest products producers in western and central Canada and government forest management agencies to identify long-term, repeatedly measured forest plots and provenance trials. Our research team will collect fresh measurements and use historic data from these forest plots and experimental trials, as well as economic data, to empirically assess the extent of forest changes during the past six decades. We will use these data as a basis from which to model how the forest could change in the 21st century based on projected climate change scenarios. The research will be conducted by a team of accomplished researchers and will train six highly qualified personnel. Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, theses, conferences, and partner-led workshops and immediately transferred to our supporting organizations. This project will significantly improve our understanding of past and future responses of western-central boreal forests to climate change, and inform mitigation strategies for coping with these responses.