Threshold theory as a framework for understanding infectious disease dynamics in livestock populations: implications for the control of agriculturally important pathogens.

阈值理论作为理解牲畜种群传染病动态的框架：对农业重要病原体控制的影响。

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05985
• 负责人: Greer, Amy
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=652436
• 关键词: Threshold; theory; framework; understanding; infectious

The spread of agricultural infectious diseases has become a global problem. Disease outbreaks in economically valuable animal populations have important social, environmental and economic costs, erode consumer confidence in food products and present a risk to human health. Understanding infectious disease ecology is at the frontier of biological research, and a major long-term research question is: Under what circumstances can a pathogen invade and persist within a population? Mathematical modeling and computer simulation approaches have contributed to our understanding of disease dynamics and how best to intervene to prevent the introduction and spread of an infectious disease. Strategies for the control of select agricultural diseases, such as foot and mouth disease in cattle, have been investigated previously but important gaps remain. We are just beginning to understand the conditions that can lead to pathogen invasion and persistence in complex agricultural systems. Well-planned interventions could prevent or minimize these disruptive outbreaks however, the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel strategies to prevent outbreaks is unknown. The proposed research program will remedy this knowledge gap by examining important challenges for our understanding of disease dynamics in livestock. **We will develop agent-based, computer simulation models that facilitate the analysis of "what-if" scenarios to identify the most effective and cost-effective surveillance and control strategies. The models represent individuals within their simulated environment and their interactions, movements, decision-making, and related health states. We will use commercial swine farms and three swine pathogens as a model system for advancing our understanding of the factors controlling disease invasion and persistence, and how these factors interact to allow pathogens to persist. This proposal creates a platform for integrating data on swine pathogens into a unified modeling framework to develop a better understanding of the factors regulating disease introduction and spread within these populations. **There is strong interest in linking infectious disease theory to policy. This program of research will highlight the ways in which swine producers can most effectively manage their animals in order to decrease the risk of pathogen invasion and persistence. Understanding the ways in which spatial structure, pathogen dynamics in the host and environmental variation can interact will allow us to identify the most effective and logistically feasible responses to the presence of these pathogens in swine under a variety of different management practices. Simulation models are a novel way to address our research questions and present rich opportunities for the natural sciences and engineering. Using simulation to address important agricultural diseases associated with food animals will open up new avenues for the application of these tools in the life sciences. Results obtained will provide health and economic benefits and strengthen existing public health planning and disease control strategies. Simulation allows us to optimize infection control practices so that we can allocate resources that are limited while at the same time minimizing disease transmission. Disease modeling is an important addition to the public health response and effective planning is the cornerstone of disease prevention.

农业传染病的传播已成为全球问题。经济有价值的动物种群中的疾病暴发具有重要的社会，环境和经济成本，侵蚀了消费者对食品的信心，并对人类健康构成风险。了解传染病生态学是生物学研究的前沿，一个主要的长期研究问题是：在哪种情况下，病原体可以侵入并持续存在？数学建模和计算机模拟方法有助于我们对疾病动态的理解，以及如何最好地干预以防止传染病引入和传播。以前已经研究了控制某些农业疾病的策略，例如牛的脚和口腔疾病，但仍然存在重要差距。我们刚刚开始了解可能导致复杂农业系统中病原体侵袭和持久性的条件。精心计划的干预措施可以预防或最大程度地减少这些破坏性爆发，但是，尚不清楚预防爆发的新型策略的有效性和成本效益。拟议的研究计划将通过研究我们对牲畜疾病动态的重要挑战来弥补这一知识差距。 **我们将开发基于代理的计算机仿真模型，以促进对“假设”方案的分析，以确定最有效，最具成本效益的监视和控制策略。这些模型在模拟环境中代表个人及其互动，运动，决策和相关健康状况。我们将使用商业猪农场和三种猪病原体作为模型系统，以促进我们对控制疾病入侵和持久性的因素的理解，以及这些因素如何相互作用以使病原体持续存在。该提案创建了一个平台，将猪病原体的数据集成到统一的建模框架中，以更好地了解调节疾病引入并在这些人群中传播的因素。 **对将传染病理论与政策联系起来有浓厚的兴趣。该研究计划将突出猪生产商最有效地管理动物的方式，以降低病原体入侵和持久性的风险。了解在各种不同的管理实践下，了解对这些病原体在猪中对这些病原体的存在的最有效和最可行的反应，了解空间结构，宿主中的病原体动态和环境变化的方式。仿真模型是解决我们的研究问题并为自然科学和工程提供丰富机会的新方法。使用仿真来解决与食用动物相关的重要农业疾病，将为这些工具在生命科学中的应用开辟新的途径。获得的结果将提供健康和经济利益，并加强现有的公共卫生计划和疾病控制策略。仿真使我们能够优化感染控制实践，以便我们可以分配有限的资源，同时降至最小化疾病的传播。疾病建模是公共卫生反应的重要补充，有效计划是预防疾病的基石。