The dynamics and restoration ecology of marine ecosystems

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In the long term, this proposal aims to establish fresh theory for marine restoration ecology by testing hypotheses based on whole-ecosystem simulation models fitted to a diversity of case study ecosystems. Restoration in my work is based on the historical reconstruction of past ecosystem states, as affected by climate and other geochemical drivers. To date, this work has published theoretical baselines for ecosystems as they may have been with no fishing extractions, for fishing with theoretical fleets that have no discards or bycatch, and a restoration trajectory that continues to accrue benefits during the restoration period. In the short term, the next two theoretical steps are, first, to analyze upper and lower limits to forage fish production in relation to food and predators, and to investigate how speciosity in the mid trophic levels affects these limits. Second, I will examine how complexity in zooplankton food webs impacts production at higher trophic levels: this will especially provide insight of the 'regime shifts' that have been observed in many marine ecosystems. In the longer term, my work will attempt to establish further theory that will provide reference points for the restoration ecology of fisheries ecosystems that can be easily and practically estimated and show ways in which the extent to which they are attained can be measured. ****To test hypotheses from this theory, fitted ecosystem models from case studies in my lab are already available. These include two ice-edge polar ecosystems (Hudson Bay and the Antarctic Peninsula), two tropical ecosystems (upwelling of the Bali Strait and coral reefs in Raja Ampat, Indonesia), and two temperate systems (northern BC and the Strait of Georgia, Canada). These models will be improved, with a focus on work using new data from the Strait of Georgia in cooperation with DFO and an NSERC Capture Fisheries strategic project.****This research aims to enhance the fundamental theoretical basis of marine restoration ecology, which is rather weak compared to its terrestrial equivalent. Practically, it will help to improve the ecosystem-based management of marine ecosystems and their embedded fisheries.******