AGENT-BASED FREIGHT DEMAND MODELLING

基于代理的货运需求建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-06470
• 负责人: Roorda, Matthew
• 金额: $ 2.62万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=663654
• 关键词: AGENT; BASED; FREIGHT; DEMAND; MODELLING

Advances are needed in the field of freight transport modelling to improve our capability to assess impacts of urban land use, economic and regulatory policies and investments in transportation and technological infrastructure. Impacts include congestion, road safety, air quality, noise, vibration, and energy consumption.******The freight system is driven by supply chains and logistics. Advances in operational research have allowed private sector firms to optimize their facility location, supplier choice, inventory management, fleet size and composition, vehicle routing, etc. But public sector freight transportation models used in practice tend to ignore supply chain and logistics in their representation of freight flows. State of the art freight models represent supply chains and logistics in rudimentary ways. The goal of this research is to develop improved methods for integrating logistics and optimization methods into public sector freight transportation models.******The applicant's long-term research objectives are as follows:***1) Develop firm synthesis, evolution, supply chain and logistics models that are suitable for application in a public sector freight transportation model***First, firm synthesis and evolution models will be developed. These models will represent the current population of business establishments with industry class, size and the establishment's resources (land, labour, commercial vehicle fleet). Firm evolution models will predict the birth and death of firms and the growth or decline of the firm's resources over time. Supply chain models will link establishments to form supply chains through vendor selection and commodity contract formation models. Logistics models will address decisions such as shipment size, vehicle routing and scheduling, route choice and parking choice. ******2) Integrate supply chain and logistics models with broader economic models***The supply chain and logistics models above will be integrated with advanced economic models of the regional and global economy that have been recently developed by the applicant. This will allow firm behaviour to be forecast consistently with broader economic model projections of commodity flows across Canada and with Canada's trading partners.******3) Develop the computational platform for microsimulation of goods movement and firm behavior.***The research will produce a fully operational computational platform for the microsimulation in which the behavioural models will be implemented. This computational platform will allow for model validation and policy applications. ******4) Apply the microsimulation model for analysis of transportation policy***Transportation infrastructure, parking policy, zoning bylaws, road pricing, subsidies for alternative fuel vehicles, tax policy are examples of the policies that could be assessed with the proposed modelling framework.**

需要在货运建模领域取得进展，以提高我们评估城市土地使用、经济和监管政策以及运输和技术基础设施投资影响的能力。影响包括拥堵、道路安全、空气质量、噪音、振动和能源消耗。*货运系统由供应链和物流驱动。运营研究的进步使私营部门公司能够优化其设施位置、供应商选择、库存管理、车队规模和组成、车辆路线等。但实践中使用的公共部门货运模型在表示货运时往往忽视供应链和物流。流量。最先进的货运模型以基本的方式代表供应链和物流。本研究的目标是开发改进的方法，将物流和优化方法整合到公共部门的货运模型中。申请人的长期研究目标如下：*1）开发适合于公共部门货物运输模型应用的企业综合，进化，供应链和物流模型 * 首先，将开发企业综合和进化模型。 这些模型将代表当前的商业机构人口，包括行业类别、规模和机构资源（土地、劳动力、商业车队）。企业演化模型将预测企业的诞生和死亡以及企业资源随时间的增长或下降。供应链模式将通过供应商选择和商品合同订立模式将各企业联系起来，形成供应链。物流模型将解决运输规模、车辆路线和调度、路线选择和停车选择等决策问题。**2）将供应链和物流模型与更广泛的经济模型相结合 * 上述供应链和物流模型将与申请人最近开发的区域和全球经济的先进经济模型相结合。这将使对公司行为的预测与对整个加拿大和加拿大贸易伙伴的商品流动的更广泛的经济模型预测保持一致。3)开发货物流动和企业行为微观模拟的计算平台。*这项研究将产生一个全面运作的微观模拟计算平台，其中将实施行为模型。 这个计算平台将允许模型验证和政策应用。**4）应用微观模拟模型分析交通政策 * 交通基础设施、停车政策、分区规章制度、道路定价、替代燃料车辆补贴、税收政策是可以用拟议的建模框架进行评估的政策的例子。