AGENT-BASED FREIGHT DEMAND MODELLING

需要在货运模型领域取得进展，以提高我们评估城市土地使用、经济和监管政策以及对运输和技术基础设施的投资的影响的能力。影响包括拥堵、道路安全、空气质量、噪音、振动和能源消耗。*货运系统由供应链和物流驱动。运筹学的进步使私营企业能够优化其设施位置、供应商选择、库存管理、车队规模和组成、车辆路线等。但实践中使用的公共部门货运模型在表示货流时往往忽略供应链和物流。最先进的货运模型以最基本的方式代表供应链和物流。本研究的目标是开发将物流和优化方法集成到公共部门货运模型中的改进方法。*申请人的长期研究目标如下：*1)开发适用于公共部门货运模型的企业综合、演化、供应链和物流模型*首先，将开发企业综合和演化模型。这些模型将代表行业类别、规模和机构资源(土地、劳动力、商用车辆)的当前商业机构的人口。企业演化模型将预测企业的诞生和消亡，以及随着时间的推移企业资源的增减。供应链模式将通过供应商选择和商品合同形成模式将企业联系起来形成供应链。物流模型将解决运输规模、车辆路线和调度、路线选择和停车选择等决策。*2)将供应链和物流模型与更广泛的经济模型相结合*上述供应链和物流模型将与申请人最近开发的区域和全球经济的先进经济模型相结合。这将使企业行为能够与更广泛的经济模型对整个加拿大和加拿大贸易伙伴之间商品流动的预测保持一致。*3)开发商品流动和企业行为微观模拟的计算平台。*这项研究将为微观模拟产生一个完全可操作的计算平台，行为模型将在其中实施。这一计算平台将允许模型验证和政策应用。*4)将微观模拟模型应用于交通政策分析*交通基础设施、停车政策、分区规则、道路定价、替代燃料汽车补贴、税收政策是可以用建议的建模框架评估的政策的例子。

Advances are needed in the field of freight transport modelling to improve our capability to assess impacts of urban land use, economic and regulatory policies and investments in transportation and technological infrastructure. Impacts include congestion, road safety, air quality, noise, vibration, and energy consumption.******The freight system is driven by supply chains and logistics. Advances in operational research have allowed private sector firms to optimize their facility location, supplier choice, inventory management, fleet size and composition, vehicle routing, etc. But public sector freight transportation models used in practice tend to ignore supply chain and logistics in their representation of freight flows. State of the art freight models represent supply chains and logistics in rudimentary ways. The goal of this research is to develop improved methods for integrating logistics and optimization methods into public sector freight transportation models.******The applicant's long-term research objectives are as follows:***1) Develop firm synthesis, evolution, supply chain and logistics models that are suitable for application in a public sector freight transportation model***First, firm synthesis and evolution models will be developed. These models will represent the current population of business establishments with industry class, size and the establishment's resources (land, labour, commercial vehicle fleet). Firm evolution models will predict the birth and death of firms and the growth or decline of the firm's resources over time. Supply chain models will link establishments to form supply chains through vendor selection and commodity contract formation models. Logistics models will address decisions such as shipment size, vehicle routing and scheduling, route choice and parking choice. ******2) Integrate supply chain and logistics models with broader economic models***The supply chain and logistics models above will be integrated with advanced economic models of the regional and global economy that have been recently developed by the applicant. This will allow firm behaviour to be forecast consistently with broader economic model projections of commodity flows across Canada and with Canada's trading partners.******3) Develop the computational platform for microsimulation of goods movement and firm behavior.***The research will produce a fully operational computational platform for the microsimulation in which the behavioural models will be implemented. This computational platform will allow for model validation and policy applications. ******4) Apply the microsimulation model for analysis of transportation policy***Transportation infrastructure, parking policy, zoning bylaws, road pricing, subsidies for alternative fuel vehicles, tax policy are examples of the policies that could be assessed with the proposed modelling framework.**