Evaluation of permafrost changes due to climate change

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Manitoba Hydro is an electric power and natural gas utility in Manitoba. Freezing and thawing of water and soil are impacted by climate change and might force water resource and geotechnical management of Manitoba Hydro to be changed in the near future. Northern infrastructure and water resources management adaptions were originally designed to rely on the properties of ice-rich frozen soil. However, due to climate change, old design assumptions are no longer valid. One example for potential changes are the questions how soil and groundwater will contribute to the available water in the future and how this water will be replenished. Thus, a critical factor in permafrost degradation are changes in the hydrological processes which results from free flowing water and their associated but currently unknown flow paths. This project will investigate the thermal status of the permafrost under current and future climate conditions using numerical modeling and will advise Manitoba Hydro which additional hydrological processes are needed to be considered in their reservoir management. This will allow Manitoba Hydro to upgrade their current hydrological models and to develop new management scenarios addressing potential changes in the future. Thus, the results of this project will support the energy security in the Province of Manitoba.