Drivers and predictability of forest fire activity across the circumboreal zone of Northern Hemisphere (PREFIRE)

北半球环北带森林火灾活动的驱动因素和可预测性（PREFIRE）

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06637
• 负责人: Drobyshev, Igor
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=683434
• 关键词: Drivers; predictability; forest; fire; activity

The ability to predict forest fire activity at the monthly, seasonal, and above-annual time scales is critical to mitigate its impacts, including the fire-driven dynamics of the ecosystem and socio-economic services. Fire is the primary driving factor of ecosystem dynamics in the boreal forest, directly affecting global carbon balance and atmospheric concentrations of the trace gases, including carbon dioxide. The resilience of the ocean-atmosphere system provides the potential for the advanced detection of the upcoming fire season intensity. Large scale anomalies involving the energy balance of world oceans and the associated atmospheric pressure patterns have been repeatedly shown to affect drought conditions, pointing to the large-scale changes in humidity and energy transport as important drivers of regional fire activity. Earlier studies showed strong links between changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) and associated pressure patterns, forcing changes in land precipitation and, subsequently, regional fire regimes. It is reasonable to expect that similar teleconnections between ocean and atmosphere, controlling fire regimes, extend over the entire circumboreal region. A likely source of such teleconnections is interactions between the Arctic climate (such as the sea-ice conditions), El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillations (AMO). In particular, the proximity of this biome to cold and dry Arctic air masses makes the boreal forests sensitive to the ongoing climate change, increasing the probability of long-lasting extreme weather events, including spring and summer droughts. It is also possible that climate extremes behind the increase in forest fire activity may be a product of global features of atmospheric features, such as amplification of planetary waves. PREFIRE seeks: ***(1) to identify climatic drivers controlling boreal fire activity and its predictability at the monthly, seasonal and annual timescales by relying on analyses of multiple proxies of modern and historic fire activity and climate-ocean variability, and ***(2) to provide decadal and century-scale predictions of future fire activity and to translate them into impacts on ecosystem services (in particular forest productivity and C storage capacity). ***I argue that there is a strong potential in using a large body of dendrochronological reconstructions to improve the predictability of weather extremes, such as periods of regionally increased fire activity. I propose that their analyses with independently obtained proxies of climate variability and vegetation cover should contribute towards better knowledge of modern climate drivers of forest fires and the predictability of fire activity at multiple temporal scales.

预测每月、季节性和高于年度时间尺度的森林火灾活动的能力对于减轻其影响至关重要，包括火灾驱动的生态系统和社会经济服务的动态。火灾是北方森林生态系统动态的主要驱动因素，直接影响全球碳平衡和大气中微量气体（包括二氧化碳）的浓度。海洋-大气系统的弹性为提前检测即将到来的火灾季节强度提供了潜力。涉及世界海洋能量平衡和相关大气压力模式的大规模异常现象已被多次证明会影响干旱条件，表明湿度和能量传输的大规模变化是区域火灾活动的重要驱动因素。早期研究表明，海面温度（SST）变化与相关压力模式之间存在密切联系，迫使陆地降水发生变化，进而导致区域火灾状况发生变化。可以合理地预期，控制火情的海洋和大气之间类似的遥联系会延伸到整个环北地区。这种遥相关的一个可能来源是北极气候（例如海冰条件）、厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）和大西洋数十年涛动（AMO）之间的相互作用。特别是，该生物群落靠近寒冷干燥的北极气团，使得北方森林对持续的气候变化敏感，增加了发生长期极端天气事件（包括春季和夏季干旱）的可能性。森林火灾活动增加背后的极端气候也可能是全球大气特征的产物，例如行星波的放大。 PREFIRE 旨在：***(1) 通过对现代和历史火灾活动以及气候-海洋变化的多重代理分析，确定控制北方火灾活动及其在月度、季节和年度时间尺度上的可预测性的气候驱动因素，***(2) 提供未来火灾活动的十年和一个世纪尺度的预测，并将其转化为对生态系统服务的影响（特别是森林生产力和碳储存能力）。 ***我认为，使用大量的树木年代学重建来提高极端天气的可预测性，例如区域性火灾活动增加的时期，具有巨大的潜力。我建议他们对独立获得的气候变化和植被覆盖代理进行的分析应有助于更好地了解森林火灾的现代气候驱动因素以及多个时间尺度火灾活动的可预测性。