Drivers and predictability of forest fire activity across the circumboreal zone of Northern Hemisphere (PREFIRE)

在每月、季节和年度以上的时间尺度上预测森林火灾活动的能力，对于减轻其影响，包括生态系统和社会经济服务的火灾驱动的动态，至关重要。火是北方森林生态系统动态的主要驱动因素，直接影响全球碳平衡和大气中包括二氧化碳在内的痕量气体的浓度。海洋-大气系统的恢复力为提前探测即将到来的火季强度提供了潜力。涉及世界海洋能量平衡和相关大气压力模式的大范围异常一再被证明影响干旱条件，指出湿度和能量输送的大范围变化是区域火灾活动的重要驱动因素。早些时候的研究表明，海洋表面温度(SST)的变化与相关的气压模式之间存在密切联系，迫使陆地降水发生变化，进而导致区域火灾制度的变化。有理由预计，海洋和大气之间的类似遥控联系，控制着火灾制度，将延伸到整个北冰洋地区。这种遥相关的一个可能来源是北极气候(如海冰条件)、厄尔尼诺南方振荡(ENSO)和大西洋数十年振荡(AMO)之间的相互作用。特别是，这种生物群接近寒冷和干燥的北极气团，使北方森林对正在进行的气候变化敏感，增加了发生包括春夏干旱在内的长期极端天气事件的可能性。森林火灾活动增加背后的极端气候也可能是大气特征的全球特征的产物，例如行星波的放大。PREFIRE力求：*(1)依靠对现代和历史火灾活动以及气候-海洋变异性的多个指标的分析，找出在月、季和年时间尺度上控制北方火灾活动及其可预测性的气候驱动因素，并*(2)对未来火灾活动提供十年和百年尺度的预测，并将其转化为对生态系统服务的影响(特别是森林生产力和碳储存能力)。*我认为，使用大量的树状年代学重建来改善极端天气的可预测性是有很大潜力的，例如区域性火灾活动增加的时期。我认为，他们利用独立获得的气候变异性和植被复盖率指标进行的分析应有助于更好地了解森林火灾的现代气候驱动因素以及火灾活动在多个时间尺度上的可预测性。

The ability to predict forest fire activity at the monthly, seasonal, and above-annual time scales is critical to mitigate its impacts, including the fire-driven dynamics of the ecosystem and socio-economic services. Fire is the primary driving factor of ecosystem dynamics in the boreal forest, directly affecting global carbon balance and atmospheric concentrations of the trace gases, including carbon dioxide. The resilience of the ocean-atmosphere system provides the potential for the advanced detection of the upcoming fire season intensity. Large scale anomalies involving the energy balance of world oceans and the associated atmospheric pressure patterns have been repeatedly shown to affect drought conditions, pointing to the large-scale changes in humidity and energy transport as important drivers of regional fire activity. Earlier studies showed strong links between changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) and associated pressure patterns, forcing changes in land precipitation and, subsequently, regional fire regimes. It is reasonable to expect that similar teleconnections between ocean and atmosphere, controlling fire regimes, extend over the entire circumboreal region. A likely source of such teleconnections is interactions between the Arctic climate (such as the sea-ice conditions), El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillations (AMO). In particular, the proximity of this biome to cold and dry Arctic air masses makes the boreal forests sensitive to the ongoing climate change, increasing the probability of long-lasting extreme weather events, including spring and summer droughts. It is also possible that climate extremes behind the increase in forest fire activity may be a product of global features of atmospheric features, such as amplification of planetary waves. PREFIRE seeks: ***(1) to identify climatic drivers controlling boreal fire activity and its predictability at the monthly, seasonal and annual timescales by relying on analyses of multiple proxies of modern and historic fire activity and climate-ocean variability, and ***(2) to provide decadal and century-scale predictions of future fire activity and to translate them into impacts on ecosystem services (in particular forest productivity and C storage capacity). ***I argue that there is a strong potential in using a large body of dendrochronological reconstructions to improve the predictability of weather extremes, such as periods of regionally increased fire activity. I propose that their analyses with independently obtained proxies of climate variability and vegetation cover should contribute towards better knowledge of modern climate drivers of forest fires and the predictability of fire activity at multiple temporal scales.