Fully-Lagrangian three-dimensional modelling of river ice jam initiation

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Accumulation and blockage of floating river ice parcels, called ice jam, is a significant cause of flooding in Canadian rivers. Therefore, prediction of where and when the ice jam may happen is essential for estimation of the potential flooding, assessment of the associated risk, and planning responses. Nevertheless, even with the latest advancement in computational techniques and numerical models, such prediction is still beyond the capabilities of existing predictive tools. This is due to the complex nature of ice jams and the conditions leading to its initiation and formation, which depend on a large number of factors including the ice characteristics, and the hydrodynamic and thermodynamic and morphology of the watercourse. The proposed project, therefore, aims at developing a sophisticated numerical model, capable of predicting the ice jam formation and applying it for investigating the critical conditions leading to jam initiation over ranges applicable to Canadian (esp., Quebec) rivers. The proposed model will be based on a three-dimensional high-performance hybrid mesh-free Lagrangian technique, which is known for its ability to deal with highly dynamic multi-physics problems, and hence is capable of reproducing the detailed physics of ice-water interactions and ice jam initiation and formation. The model outcomes, in combination with the experimental data, are expected to establish the relationship between the ice jam initiation and the critical value of the key effective parameters such as ice size and concentration, river morphology, and flow conditions. Therefore, the proposed research will provide a new understanding of the otherwise difficult to predict jam initiation. This will significantly improve the ice jams predictability, which has a crucial role in the prevention and mitigation of the risks associated with the jams and resulting floods and their devastating socio-economic impacts, particularly in Canadian and Quebec rivers.