From global change to regional response: Integrating global and regional climate model simulations with alpine glacier mass balance and downstream hydrology

从全球变化到区域响应：将全球和区域气候模型模拟与高山冰川质量平衡和下游水文相结合

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-04094
• 负责人: Bush, Andrew
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=708918
• 关键词: global; change; regional; response; Integrating

The impact of future climate change on glaciated regions of the world (both high altitude and high latitude) has important ramifications for the availability of freshwater. Sectors highly dependent on sustained and robust levels of glacial/snow meltwater during the summer melt season include agriculture, hydroelectric power production, and public availability of freshwater. Other related factors dependent on Earth's glaciers include global sea level, the geopolitics of trans-border river flows, and the dangers of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). In certain regions of the world (for example, the countries spanned by the Himalaya) glacial meltwater is the primary source of freshwater yet GLOFs have been on the increase in the Himalaya, the Alps, and the Andes, killing thousands of people and causing millions of dollars in damage to settlements, infrastructure, and livestock. I plan to focus the research outlined below on two sensitive regions of the globe: western Canada (British Columbia and Alberta) and the Himalaya (Pakistan, India, and Nepal). The physical links and interactions between global climate, regional climate, alpine glaciers, and hydrology have not been explored. There are numerical models for each of these facets of the climate system but linking them together in a robust way that is capable of forecasting is a significant numerical challenge given the disparate spatial and temporal scales on which each component operates. My group at the University of Alberta has focused on climate change over the western Canadian Cordillera and the Himalaya under a “business-as-usual” emission scenario for the next century, and we have incorporated global and regional climate models to address these issues. We are now focused on a high-end emission scenario using the latest coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM (ESM2M) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been our tool for downscaling the GCM data. We have developed a glacier mass balance model within WRF that is interactive with the atmospheric model and can also represent debris-covered glaciers, which are so prevalent in the Himalaya. The next step in this chain of numerical work is to link predictions of glacier mass balance with hydrology and downhill streamflow, with particular attention paid to detailed topography, the possibility of glacial lake formation, and freshwater availability. A number of distributed hydrological models are available that can exploit results from WRF simulations for future climates. We have started by using the SWAT hydrology model and have configured it for use over both Alberta and Nepal. The proposed research integrates the fields of atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric, and hydrologic modelling while retaining an element of fieldwork groundtruthing for the model development.

未来气候变化对世界冰川地区(高海拔和高纬度)的影响对淡水的可获得性具有重要影响。在夏季融化季节，高度依赖持续和强劲水平的冰川/雪融化水的部门包括农业、水力发电和公共淡水供应。其他依赖于地球冰川的相关因素包括全球海平面、跨境河流流动的地缘政治，以及冰川湖暴发洪水(GLOF)的危险。在世界某些地区(例如，喜马拉雅山脉横跨的国家)，冰川融化水是淡水的主要来源，但喜马拉雅、阿尔卑斯山和安第斯山脉的GLOF一直在增加，导致数千人死亡，并对定居点、基础设施和牲畜造成数百万美元的损失。我计划将下面概述的研究重点放在全球两个敏感地区：加拿大西部(不列颠哥伦比亚省和艾伯塔省)和喜马拉雅山脉(巴基斯坦、印度和尼泊尔)。 全球气候、区域气候、高山冰川和水文学之间的物理联系和相互作用尚未得到探索。气候系统的每一个方面都有数字模型，但考虑到每个组成部分在不同的空间和时间尺度上运行，以一种能够预测的强有力的方式将它们联系在一起，是一个巨大的数字挑战。 我在艾伯塔大学的团队一直专注于加拿大西部科迪勒拉和喜马拉雅地区的气候变化，在下个世纪“一切照旧”的排放情景下，我们已经纳入了全球和区域气候模型来解决这些问题。我们现在专注于使用普林斯顿地球物理流体动力学实验室最新的大气-海洋耦合GCM(ESM2M)的高端发射场景。天气研究和预报模型(WRF)一直是我们缩小GCM数据尺度的工具。我们已经在WRF内开发了一个冰川质量平衡模型，该模型与大气模型相互作用，也可以代表喜马拉雅地区普遍存在的被碎片覆盖的冰川。这一系列数值工作的下一步是将冰川物质平衡的预测与水文学和下坡径流联系起来，特别注意详细的地形、冰川湖形成的可能性和淡水的可获得性。许多分布式水文模型可以利用WRF模拟结果来预测未来的气候。我们从使用SWAT水文模型开始，并将其配置为在艾伯塔省和尼泊尔使用。 拟议的研究整合了大气、海洋、冰冻圈和水文模型领域，同时为模型开发保留了野外工作基础的一部分。