Modelling marine ecosystem health and fisheries in the changing Arctic Ocean

对不断变化的北冰洋中的海洋生态系统健康和渔业进行建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-04028
• 负责人: Steiner, Nadja
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of Victoria
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=716617
• 关键词: Modelling; marine; ecosystem; health; fisheries

The Arctic marine ecosystem is rapidly changing. Multiple stressors act on Arctic marine organisms (i.e. warming, sea-ice retreat, ocean acidification, changes in nutrient supply). Economic development causes additional stressors (e.g. noise, pollution). Many changes are faster and more profound in the Arctic than elsewhere in the world ocean. Computer models are useful and essential tools in helping understand the impacts of these changes on marine ecosystems. However, so far little has been done with respect to including marine organism responses to multiple stressors into ocean climate models. The proposed research will develop modeling capacity to 1. assess multiple stressors acting on the Arctic marine ecosystem, 2. include species thresholds and responses into climate change projections, and 3. link this information with food web and species distribution and abundance models. As such, the proposed research will assess uncertainties, risks and opportunities for ecosystem health and fisheries in a changing Arctic Ocean. In particular, we will: 1. Assess changes in environmental conditions in the changing Arctic ocean through regional climate model downscaling; analyze links to changes in observed species distributions, ecosystem health and species mortalities; and evaluate projected future changes in environmental conditions and related ecosystem and species responses, including the identification of regions sensitive to multiple stressors. 2. Develop capacity to simulate multi-stressor responses of Arctic marine plankton and forage fish in ecosystem models, i.e. by taking into account stressor dependent growth inhibition and reduced fitness in organisms, as well as adaptation and plasticity in plankton responses to changing environmental conditions. We will then assess the impact of these refinements on the model results. 3. Evaluate potential climate change and ocean acidfication impacts on forage fish recruitment through direct inclusion of larval stages in a nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus (NPZD) model, and on forage fish distribution and abundance by linking the regional climate model with species distribution and food web models. The new model capacities and approaches form key steps in the construction of adaptive modelling frameworks. We expect this research to provide a substantial contribution to the development of ecosystem models, which can be adapted to other regions, such as the Antarctic. The work will significantly enhance our understanding of lower trophic level ecosystem responses to climate change and ocean acidification in polar regions which will allow to provide scientific advise on future ocean ecosystem health and fisheries to indigenous communities and policy makers. Throughout the project, we will disseminate and discuss results to/with Canadian Arctic communities specifically the Inuvialuit peoples. Results will also contribute to the Arctic Council Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP).

北极的海洋生态系统正在迅速变化。多种压力因素作用于北极海洋生物（即变暖、海冰退缩、海洋酸化、营养供应变化）。经济发展造成额外的压力（如噪音、污染）。北极的许多变化比世界海洋的其他地方更快、更深刻。计算机模型是帮助了解这些变化对海洋生态系统的影响的有用和必不可少的工具。然而，到目前为止，在将海洋生物对多种压力源的反应纳入海洋气候模型方面做得很少。 拟议的研究将开发建模能力为1。评估多种压力作用于北极海洋生态系统，2。将物种阈值和响应纳入气候变化预测; 3.将这一信息与食物网和物种分布及丰度模型联系起来。因此，拟议的研究将评估不断变化的北冰洋生态系统健康和渔业的不确定性、风险和机遇。我们尤其会： 1.通过区域气候模型缩小尺度，评估不断变化的北冰洋环境条件的变化;分析与观测到的物种分布、生态系统健康和物种死亡率变化的联系;评估环境条件的预计未来变化以及相关的生态系统和物种反应，包括确定对多种压力敏感的区域。 2.发展模拟北极海洋浮游生物和饲料鱼类对多种压力的反应的能力， 生态系统模型，即考虑到生物体中依赖压力源的生长抑制和适应性降低，以及浮游生物对不断变化的环境条件的适应性和可塑性。然后，我们将评估这些改进对模型结果的影响。 3.评估潜在的气候变化和海洋酸化对饲料鱼招募的影响，通过直接纳入幼虫阶段的营养，浮游植物，浮游动物，碎屑（NPZD）模型，饲料鱼的分布和丰富度，通过连接区域气候模型与物种分布和食物网模型。 新的模型能力和方法是建立适应性模型框架的关键步骤。我们期望这项研究将为生态系统模型的发展作出重大贡献，这些模型可以适用于其他地区，如南极洲。这项工作将大大提高我们对极地地区低营养级生态系统对气候变化和海洋酸化的反应的理解，这将有助于为土著社区和政策制定者提供有关未来海洋生态系统健康和渔业的科学建议。在整个项目中，我们将向加拿大北极社区特别是Inuvialuit人民传播和讨论结果。研究结果还将有助于北极理事会北极监测和评估方案。