Modelling marine ecosystem health and fisheries in the changing Arctic Ocean

北极海洋生态系统正在迅速变化。北极海洋生物受到多重压力(即气候变暖、海冰退缩、海洋酸化、营养物质供应变化)。经济发展带来了额外的压力(如噪音、污染)。北极的许多变化比世界海洋的其他地方更快、更深刻。在帮助了解这些变化对海洋生态系统的影响方面，计算机模型是有用和必要的工具。然而，到目前为止，在将海洋生物对多种应激源的反应纳入海洋气候模型方面所做的工作还很少。 拟议的研究将发展建模能力，以1.评估作用于北极海洋生态系统的多种压力因素，2.将物种阈值和反应纳入气候变化预测，3.将这些信息与食物网以及物种分布和丰度模型联系起来。因此，拟议的研究将评估不断变化的北冰洋生态系统健康和渔业的不确定性、风险和机会。我们尤其会： 1.通过缩小区域气候模式，评估不断变化的北冰洋环境条件的变化；分析与观察到的物种分布、生态系统健康和物种死亡率变化的联系；评估环境条件以及相关生态系统和物种反应的预测未来变化，包括确定对多种应激源敏感的区域。 2.发展模拟北极海洋浮游生物和饲料鱼多应激源反应的能力 生态系统模型，即考虑到依赖压力的生长抑制和生物体适应性降低，以及浮游生物对不断变化的环境条件的适应和可塑性。然后，我们将评估这些改进对模型结果的影响。 3.通过将幼体阶段直接纳入营养物质、浮游植物、浮游动物、碎屑(NPZD)模型，以及通过将区域气候模型与物种分布和食物网模型联系起来，评估气候变化和海洋酸化对饲料鱼招募的潜在影响。 新的模型能力和方法构成了构建适应性建模框架的关键步骤。我们期待这项研究将对生态系统模型的发展做出实质性贡献，该模型可以适应其他地区，如南极。这项工作将大大加强我们对极地地区较低营养层生态系统对气候变化和海洋酸化反应的了解，从而能够向土著社区和政策制定者提供关于未来海洋生态系统健康和渔业的科学建议。在整个项目中，我们将向加拿大北极社区，特别是因努维亚卢伊特人传播和讨论成果。研究结果还将为北极理事会北极监测和评估计划(AMAP)做出贡献。

The Arctic marine ecosystem is rapidly changing. Multiple stressors act on Arctic marine organisms (i.e. warming, sea-ice retreat, ocean acidification, changes in nutrient supply). Economic development causes additional stressors (e.g. noise, pollution). Many changes are faster and more profound in the Arctic than elsewhere in the world ocean. Computer models are useful and essential tools in helping understand the impacts of these changes on marine ecosystems. However, so far little has been done with respect to including marine organism responses to multiple stressors into ocean climate models. The proposed research will develop modeling capacity to 1. assess multiple stressors acting on the Arctic marine ecosystem, 2. include species thresholds and responses into climate change projections, and 3. link this information with food web and species distribution and abundance models. As such, the proposed research will assess uncertainties, risks and opportunities for ecosystem health and fisheries in a changing Arctic Ocean. In particular, we will: 1. Assess changes in environmental conditions in the changing Arctic ocean through regional climate model downscaling; analyze links to changes in observed species distributions, ecosystem health and species mortalities; and evaluate projected future changes in environmental conditions and related ecosystem and species responses, including the identification of regions sensitive to multiple stressors. 2. Develop capacity to simulate multi-stressor responses of Arctic marine plankton and forage fish in ecosystem models, i.e. by taking into account stressor dependent growth inhibition and reduced fitness in organisms, as well as adaptation and plasticity in plankton responses to changing environmental conditions. We will then assess the impact of these refinements on the model results. 3. Evaluate potential climate change and ocean acidfication impacts on forage fish recruitment through direct inclusion of larval stages in a nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus (NPZD) model, and on forage fish distribution and abundance by linking the regional climate model with species distribution and food web models. The new model capacities and approaches form key steps in the construction of adaptive modelling frameworks. We expect this research to provide a substantial contribution to the development of ecosystem models, which can be adapted to other regions, such as the Antarctic. The work will significantly enhance our understanding of lower trophic level ecosystem responses to climate change and ocean acidification in polar regions which will allow to provide scientific advise on future ocean ecosystem health and fisheries to indigenous communities and policy makers. Throughout the project, we will disseminate and discuss results to/with Canadian Arctic communities specifically the Inuvialuit peoples. Results will also contribute to the Arctic Council Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP).