Modelling marine ecosystem health and fisheries in the changing Arctic Ocean

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The Arctic marine ecosystem is rapidly changing. Multiple stressors act on Arctic marine organisms (i.e. warming, sea-ice retreat, ocean acidification, changes in nutrient supply). Economic development causes additional stressors (e.g. noise, pollution). Many changes are faster and more profound in the Arctic than elsewhere in the world ocean. Computer models are useful and essential tools in helping understand the impacts of these changes on marine ecosystems. However, so far little has been done with respect to including marine organism responses to multiple stressors into ocean climate models. The proposed research will develop modeling capacity to 1. assess multiple stressors acting on the Arctic marine ecosystem, 2. include species thresholds and responses into climate change projections, and 3. link this information with food web and species distribution and abundance models. As such, the proposed research will assess uncertainties, risks and opportunities for ecosystem health and fisheries in a changing Arctic Ocean. In particular, we will: 1. Assess changes in environmental conditions in the changing Arctic ocean through regional climate model downscaling; analyze links to changes in observed species distributions, ecosystem health and species mortalities; and evaluate projected future changes in environmental conditions and related ecosystem and species responses, including the identification of regions sensitive to multiple stressors. 2. Develop capacity to simulate multi-stressor responses of Arctic marine plankton and forage fish in ecosystem models, i.e. by taking into account stressor dependent growth inhibition and reduced fitness in organisms, as well as adaptation and plasticity in plankton responses to changing environmental conditions. We will then assess the impact of these refinements on the model results. 3. Evaluate potential climate change and ocean acidfication impacts on forage fish recruitment through direct inclusion of larval stages in a nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus (NPZD) model, and on forage fish distribution and abundance by linking the regional climate model with species distribution and food web models. The new model capacities and approaches form key steps in the construction of adaptive modelling frameworks. We expect this research to provide a substantial contribution to the development of ecosystem models, which can be adapted to other regions, such as the Antarctic. The work will significantly enhance our understanding of lower trophic level ecosystem responses to climate change and ocean acidification in polar regions which will allow to provide scientific advise on future ocean ecosystem health and fisheries to indigenous communities and policy makers. Throughout the project, we will disseminate and discuss results to/with Canadian Arctic communities specifically the Inuvialuit peoples. Results will also contribute to the Arctic Council Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP).