Cluster of excellence in water resources and climate modeling in alpine and polar environments

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The retreat of mountain glaciers worldwide is a key indicator of modern climate change, with mass loss from glaciers contributing to sea level rise and to river flows during dry and warm parts of the year. In western Canada, maintenance of low flows by glacier runoff is essential for hydro-power generation, agricultural irrigation and water supply for major cities and small towns. The coming decades will see rapid and unprecedented changes to glaciers worldwide. However, current projections are unable to resolve with certainty how individual river basins will be impacted by the loss of glacier ice in their headwaters.  The long-term objective of my research program is to use state-of-the-art field, modelling and data analysis methods to narrow the uncertainties in projections of glacial contributions to streamflow and sea level rise. My short-term objectives, each envisioned as a PhD project, will address the following key uncertainties: A) Uncertainty in future climate scenarios, given by Global Climate Models (GCMs), which drive the glacier mass changes. We will evaluate GCMs with historical climate observations and use the best performing GCMs for the projections.  B) Uncertainty in simple downscaling methods used to convert coarsely-resolved climate fields from GCMs to finely-resolved ones that drive melt processes at the scale of individual glaciers. We will develop advanced downscaling methods that incorporate regional climate modelling and machine learning methods.  C) Uncertainty in empirical melt models which cannot be adequately calibrated in the absence of observations. We will develop a physics-based model that calculates melt from the difference between energy input into the glacier (e.g. solar radiation) and energy output (e.g. thermal radiation). We will evaluate model performance against novel field observations of energy and mass fluxes at glaciers in western Canada.  D) Uncertainty in the treatment of glacier dynamics. We will incorporate a high-complexity model of glacier geometry evolution in our model of glacier mass balance.  E) Uncertainty in glacier mass loss on regional scale which cannot be adequately quantified in the absence of a historical record of mass changes at this scale. We will develop novel data analysis methods to use available long-term streamflow measurements as a proxy of glacier mass changes.  By resolving these uncertainties, we will provide projections of glacier contribution to streamflow at the level of detail necessary to inform local policy makers and user communities. The outcomes will define how climate change will tangibly express itself for Canadians and most of the world. Funded personnel will contribute to the cutting-edge research on risk assessment of freshwater resources under climate change, and will receive high-level training in geosciences, computing and data analysis preparing them for a broad range of opportunities in academia, government or private industry.