Towards Developing a Physically Based Ice Jam Flood Early Warning System

致力于开发基于物理的冰塞洪水预警系统

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-03804
• 负责人: Ghobrial, Tadros
• 金额: $ 2.26万
• 依托单位: Université Laval
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=742723
• 关键词: Towards; Developing; Physically; Based; Ice

River floods are the most common natural disaster. In Canada, besides open water floods, it is necessary to consider ice jam floods (IJF) since almost all river systems are ice-affected for several months of the year. IJFs are costing Canadians hundreds of millions of dollars each year. Recent IJFs on the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, AB (spring 2020), and on the Chaudière River in the Beauce region, QC (spring 2017 and 2019) are evidences that despite all the technological advancements in recent years, still our abilities to successfully predict and prepare for these events are limited. In this context, developing an operational IJF Early Warning Systems (IJF-EWS), is an urgent priority for Canadian governments and municipalities so that sustainable flood mitigation measures can be developed. Ice jams are very complex, and therefore, the development of an IJF-EWS that can predict the timing, location and magnitude of ice jams can be successfully achieved if a physically based coupled hydrological-river ice model is developed. Progress has been made in recent years developing this type of models, but the inaccuracy and sparsity of field data during break-up are preventing the improvement and further developments of these models. To address this need, I am proposing an ambitious research program having as a long-term goal to build an operational, transferable and adaptable IJF-EWS. The short-term objectives of the proposed research program are to:   (1) Assess the applicability of ice-affected discharge measurements methods to different river sizes and types (regional aspect) and to adapt these methods for continuous measurements during the ice cover and break-up periods (temporal aspect).   (2) Develop new methods (or adapt existing ones) for continuous measurements of river ice characteristics over longer reaches (spatial aspect).   (3) Develop and validate a coupled hydrological-river ice model to accurately simulate break-up processes (modeling aspect). Three PhD and three MSc students will work on the above objectives. The students will receive training on the use of a wide variety of sophisticated field instrumentation, advanced data processing methods and numerical modelling. Field measurements will be conducted on two rivers over multiple winters. A coupled hydrological-river ice model will be developed in the Delft-FEWS platform using HOOPLA (for hydrology) and River1D (for river ice processes). The coupled model will be validated using multi-year field data. The developed IJF-EWS will have a great impact by providing forecasting information to guide the development of sustainable flood mitigation measures.

河地板是最常见的自然灾害。在加拿大，除了开放水地板外，还必须考虑冰果酱地板（IJF），因为几乎所有河流系统都在一年中的几个月都受到冰的影响。 IJF每年使加拿大人数亿美元损失。 QC（QC 2017年和2019年春季）的Chaudière河（2020年春季）在AB麦克默里（Fort McMurray）的Athabasca河上最近的IJFS（2017年和2019年春季），这是近年来目的地的所有技术进步，我们仍然能够成功预测和准备这些活动的能力。在这种情况下，开发运营IJF预警系统（IJF-EWS）是加拿大政府和文化的紧急优先事项，因此可以制定可持续的缓解洪水措施。冰果冻非常复杂，因此，如果开发了基于物理的耦合的水文摩托车冰模型，可以成功实现冰果冻的时间，位置和大小的IJF-ews的发展。近年来，进步已经开发了这种类型的模型，但是分手过程中现场数据的不准确性和稀疏性正在阻止这些模型的改进和进一步发展。为了满足这一需求，我提出了一项雄心勃勃的研究计划，该计划是建立运营，可转让和适应能力的IJF-ews的长期目标。拟议的研究计划的短期目标是：（1）评估受冰影响的排放测量方法适用于不同的河流尺寸和类型（区域方面），并在冰盖和分手期（时间方面）中适应这些方法进行连续测量。 （2）开发新方法（或适应现有方法），以连续测量较长的河流（空间）方面的河流特征）。 （3）开发和验证耦合的水文摩托车模型，以准确模拟分解过程（建模方面）。三位博士学位和三名MSC学生将致力于上述目标。学生将接受有关使用各种复杂的现场仪器，高级数据处理方法和数值建模的培训。将在多个冬季对两条河流进行现场测量。使用Hoopla（用于水文学）和River1d（用于河流冰过程）的DELFT-FEWS平台将开发一个耦合的水文流冰模型。耦合模型将使用多年字段数据验证。开发的IJF-EWS将通过提供预测信息来指导可持续洪水缓解测量的发展，从而产生重大影响。