Climate Dynamics

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The long-term objective of the CRC research program is based on Beltrami's main area of research which is the overall characterization of the heat and mass transfer regime between the lower atmosphere and the first few hundred meters of the Earth's crust. The proposed program is articulated around four axes (1) Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI): The Temperature of the Earth. (2) Paleoclimate Modelling (3) Evolution of Permafrost (4) Land from Space. The fundamental quantity for understanding how our planet's climate will change in the future and how sensitive Earth's climate is to increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses (GHG), is the change in Earth's energy content and its temporal evolution. That is, the excess energy which the Earth retains because of the increased atmospheric GHGs. Uncertainty in the EEI is one of the most urgent issues hindering the proper evaluation of future climate change. Excess energy in the climate system is stored in the Oceans (90%), Land (5%), Cryosphere (3%), and Atmosphere (2%). We will contribute to the estimate of the land changing heat component. Land heat affects the temperature above the ground and, along with soil moisture, acts as a trigger for extreme temperature events, which influence the intensity of forest fires. In addition, the upper few meters of the world's soil contain about three times as much carbon as the atmosphere. Forty five percent of soil carbon is confined to permafrost regions. Increases in continental heat raise the potential of destabilizing soil and permafrost bounded carbon, leading to an addition of GHGs to the atmosphere (i.e., a positive feedback). To monitor the land heat component of EEI, we will be collecting subsurface temperature profiles around the world. Larger data spatial coverage will help to reduce land heat uncertainties. Measuring the temperature of the Earth will also provide for a more robust non-proxy, record of past ground surface temperature for the last 500 years. In addition, we will use satellite data to estimate land heat fluxes. Data, from above and below, will be put into land surface and regional climate models to study phenomena near the ground with potential global climate feedback. Outcomes from each axis will bring new knowledge to issues related to Earth's energy inventory, air-ground modeling, permafrost stability, and land temperature and surface energy balance. Results will contribute to assessing Global Climate Models' future projections.