Advanced computational platform for permafrost geomechanical modeling and climate impact assessment of northern infrastructure

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The adverse effects of climate warming on the natural and built environments in (sub)arctic regions are unprecedented and accelerating. The built structures (such as roads, railways, dams, and pipelines) in Canada's North are sinking into the thawing ground faster than before. The objective of the proposed international collaboration is to develop an advanced computational tool to model the complex geomechanical behavior of permafrost subject to accelerating climate warming. The developed platform will be AI-powered to predict the ground surface temperature from the atmospheric projections and under different climate change scenarios. The developed tool will be employed to investigate the climate-resiliency of norther infrastructure (physical asset) during its lifetime. In accordance with the definition of resiliency by Presidential Policy Directive (2011), the performance degradation under different climate change scenarios as well as its recovery due to remedial measures will be determined. This can be an indicator of the robustness of infrastructure against changing climate. Moreover, the effectiveness of different mitigation and adaptation strategies in the performance recovery of the northern infrastructure affected by climate change will be assessed under different climate change scenarios. The proposed platform will provide Canadian stakeholders with the most comprehensive performance-based climate impact assessment tool for northern infrastructure, which is aligned with Engineers Canada's mandate to integrate climate risk into infrastructure planning, policy and procurement. In a more tangible sense, the developed assessment tool can be used to investigate the negative impacts of climate change on the lives of Aboriginal people living in Canada's North including decreased stability of public health, housing, transportation infrastructure, food security, and threats of community disruption or relocation.