Advanced computational platform for permafrost geomechanical modeling and climate impact assessment of northern infrastructure

气候变暖对（亚）北极地区自然和人造环境的不利影响是前所未有的，而且正在加速。加拿大北部的建筑物（如公路、铁路、水坝和管道）比以前更快地沉入融化的土地。拟议的国际合作的目标是开发一种先进的计算工具，以模拟气候变暖加速下永久冻土的复杂地质力学行为。开发的平台将由人工智能驱动，根据大气预测和不同的气候变化情景预测地表温度。开发的工具将被用来调查气候弹性的北方基础设施（实物资产）在其生命周期。根据总统政策指令（2011年）对弹性的定义，将确定不同气候变化情景下的性能退化以及补救措施导致的恢复。这可能是基础设施抵御气候变化的稳健性的指标。此外，将在不同的气候变化情景下评估不同的缓解和适应战略在恢复受气候变化影响的北方基础设施性能方面的有效性。拟议的平台将为加拿大利益攸关方提供最全面的基于绩效的北方基础设施气候影响评估工具，这符合加拿大工程师协会将气候风险纳入基础设施规划、政策和采购的任务。在更具体的意义上，所开发的评估工具可用于调查气候变化对加拿大北部土著人民生活的负面影响，包括公共卫生、住房、交通基础设施、粮食安全的稳定性下降，以及社区破坏或搬迁的威胁。

The adverse effects of climate warming on the natural and built environments in (sub)arctic regions are unprecedented and accelerating. The built structures (such as roads, railways, dams, and pipelines) in Canada's North are sinking into the thawing ground faster than before. The objective of the proposed international collaboration is to develop an advanced computational tool to model the complex geomechanical behavior of permafrost subject to accelerating climate warming. The developed platform will be AI-powered to predict the ground surface temperature from the atmospheric projections and under different climate change scenarios. The developed tool will be employed to investigate the climate-resiliency of norther infrastructure (physical asset) during its lifetime. In accordance with the definition of resiliency by Presidential Policy Directive (2011), the performance degradation under different climate change scenarios as well as its recovery due to remedial measures will be determined. This can be an indicator of the robustness of infrastructure against changing climate. Moreover, the effectiveness of different mitigation and adaptation strategies in the performance recovery of the northern infrastructure affected by climate change will be assessed under different climate change scenarios. The proposed platform will provide Canadian stakeholders with the most comprehensive performance-based climate impact assessment tool for northern infrastructure, which is aligned with Engineers Canada's mandate to integrate climate risk into infrastructure planning, policy and procurement. In a more tangible sense, the developed assessment tool can be used to investigate the negative impacts of climate change on the lives of Aboriginal people living in Canada's North including decreased stability of public health, housing, transportation infrastructure, food security, and threats of community disruption or relocation.