Probabilistic assessment of the vulnerability of buildings in seismic regions

地震区建筑物易损性概率评估

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-06693
• 负责人: Saeidi, Ali
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec à Chicoutimi
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=765115
• 关键词: Probabilistic; assessment; vulnerability; buildings; seismic

Risk assessment and mitigation of potential natural hazards are critical issues facing most Canadian cities. These tasks require both an accurate prediction of the hazard and a careful evaluation of the vulnerability of buildings despite existing uncertainties. In technical terms, a hazard can be described quantitatively as "the likely frequency of occurrence of an event of a specific intensity in a given area," whereas vulnerability can be defined as "the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes that increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards." Among natural disasters, earthquakes represent a particularly important hazard in certain regions of Canada. Seismic risk management requires a risk analysis that can quantify the negative impacts of an earthquake. Ideally, this analysis should include a process for the probabilistic quantification of impacts. To better assess these risks, this project aims to develop a damage simulator that will assess the vulnerability of buildings found within seismic hazard area. The development of this simulator requires a fairly exact 3-D geological model, an adequate seismic microzonation of the territory, and an appropriate vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure and buildings. The first step of the research project involves developing a 3-D geological model of the territory that provides the basis for establishing regional seismic hazards. This model should include multiple variables including the thickness and the type of surficial deposit layers, the depth and type of bedrock, and groundwater levels. Using the Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord region of Quebec as a case study, a 3-D model of surficial deposits will be produced from which we will be able to determine the effect of uncertainties associated with estimating the thickness of surficial deposits from available data that varies in density across the region. The second step is the microzonation of regional seismic hazards based on existing data for the Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord region and some new field measurements carried out as part of this project. Multiple methods have been proposed for determining the soil shear wave velocity; all these methods are affected by uncertainties. This part of the project will focus on the effects of uncertainty vis-à-vis seismic shear wave velocity (Vs) in determining soil classes and seismic risk microzonations. Based on a building vulnerability function and its uncertainties for the regional building types, the third step will develop a damage simulator that incorporates the applied methodologies for assessing hazard and vulnerability. A probabilistic approach can account for both the variable levels of damage associated with earthquakes and the probability occurrence of each seismic scenario. This damage simulator will represent a decision-support tool for the different actors involved in managing seismic risks.

风险评估和缓解潜在的自然危害是大多数加拿大城市面临的关键问题。这些任务既需要对危险的准确预测，又需要对建筑物目的地现有不确定性的脆弱性进行仔细评估。用技术术语来说，危险可以定量地描述为“在给定区域中特定强度发生事件的可能发生频率”，而脆弱性可以定义为“由身体，社会，经济和环境因素或环境因素或过程确定的条件，从而增加了社区对危害影响的敏感性。”在自然灾害中，地震代表了加拿大某些地区特别重要的危害。地震风险管理需要进行风险分析，以量化地震的负面影响。理想情况下，该分析应包括概率量化影响的过程。为了更好地评估这些风险，该项目旨在开发损害模拟器，该模拟器将评估地震危险区域内发现的建筑物的脆弱性。该模拟器的开发需要相当精确的3D地质模型，对领土的适当地震微分解以及对现有基础设施和建筑物的适当脆弱性评估。研究项目的第一步涉及开发一个3D地质模型的领土模型，该模型为建立区域地震危害提供了基础。该模型应包括多个变量，包括厚度和表面沉积层的类型，基岩的深度和类型以及地下水水平。将魁北克的Charlevoix-Haute-côte-Nord区域作为案例研究，将产生3-D的表面沉积模型，我们将能够确定与估计该区域密度不同的可用数据估计表面沉积物厚度相关的不确定性的影响。第二步是基于Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord地区的现有数据以及该项目的一部分进行的一些新的现场测量，对区域地震危害进行了微分解。已经提出了确定土壤剪切波速度的多种方法。所有这些方法都受到不确定性的影响。该项目的这一部分将重点介绍与地震剪切波速度（VS）在确定土壤类别和地震风险微分解方面的不确定性影响。基于建筑物脆弱性功能及其对区域建筑类型的不确定性，第三步将开发一个损坏模拟器，其中包含用于评估危害和脆弱性的应用方法。有问题的方法可以说明与地震相关的损害水平以及每种地震情景的概率发生。这种损坏模拟器将为参与管理地震风险的不同参与者的决策支持工具。