跨期决策的过程验证

跨期决策需要决策者在眼前的利益与未来的利益之间做出权衡与取舍，是人类赖以生存和发展的重大决策。如何进行跨期决策是人类不断认识和改造世界过程中遇到的未解之谜。主流跨期理论认为，跨期决策是一个补偿性的、折扣求和最大化的过程；而非主流的跨期理论则认为，跨期决策是非补偿性的，并不遵循折扣家族理论所假设的折扣求和过程。这一谜团为何一直没有得以破解，或许是因为我们未找到揭示其心理过程的令人信服的证据。为此，我们针对跨期决策过程，借助行为实验、眼动记录法、功能磁共振成像等技术，系统探索跨期决策的心理和神经机制，为回答"跨期决策是否遵循补偿性规则"这一问题提供了汇聚性证据。本研究将依据折扣家族理论所假设的折扣过程、求和过程、总分最大化等步骤，展开决策过程验证，以期加深人们对跨期决策机制的理解，从而为人类远见和绿色意识的培养与实践提供科学的理论支持。

Intertemporal choice is vital to human survival and development. How to make an intertemporal choice is a compelling question facing scientists today. Mainstream theories of intertemporal choice hold that choices are based on a compensatory expectation-maximizing process. Some researchers, however, argued that intertemporal choice is based on a non-compensatory process, foregoing discouting and summing. People rely on only one (or a few) key dimension (s) rather than integrating information from all dimensions of an option for making a decision. To tackle this question and further our knowledge of the mechanism underlying human decision making, concrete and convincing evidence based on psychological process is required. Therefore, we designed and conducted a series of behavioral and neural experiments to systematically investigate the process of intertemporal choice. We organized and designed our experiments in line with the computation steps assumed by the expectation rule, that is, from the process of discouting process, to summing process, and then to maximizing overall values. It is our hope that these "independent" studies can help us to gradually understand the global process underlying intertemporal choice, thereby providing psychology- and neuroscience-based theoretical foundations for facilitating the practice of people's foresight and green awareness.