产毒微囊藻的种群竞争力及产毒特征是其基因型组成与外界环境互作的综合结果，且相比于环境因素的影响作用，基因型组成是决定着微囊藻种群竞争力及产毒特征的关键性内源因素。由于对多态位点识别力差等局限，现有的产毒微囊藻基因分型技术无法准确地揭示产毒藻株基因型与其种群竞争力及产毒特征间关联性。本项目拟在筛查出产毒微囊藻mcy基因簇SNP位点基础上明确产毒微囊藻SNP基因型类别；随后在室内初步掌握SNP基因型与其种群竞争力及产毒特征间关联基础上，明确水华形成过程中养殖池塘内产毒微囊藻SNP基因型组成与其种群竞争力及产毒特征间关联性，结合水体理化指标，建立起基于产毒微囊藻SNP基因型组成的养殖池塘微囊藻水华危害的前瞻性预警模型。研究结果将为养殖池塘产毒微囊藻危害的预警及应急防控工作提供准确高效的预警模型及参考数值，对科学地恢复健康养殖生态系统具有重要意义，进而实现最大程度地降低微囊藻水华对淡水养殖的危害。

Competitive ability and toxin characteristic of toxic Microcystis population are the results of genotypes composition interaction with environmental factor. Furthermore, comparing to environmental factor, genotypes composition, as key endogenous factor, determine the competitive ability and toxin characteristic of toxic Microcystis population. Because of poor discernment of polymorphic sites, existing genotyping techniques could not reveal the correlation among genotype and competitive ability, toxin characteristic of toxic Microcystis population accurately and efficiently. The purpose of present project is to (1) figure out SNP genotypes of toxic Microcystis population based on screening out of all SNP of microcystin biosynthesis gene cluster; (2) figure out the correlation among SNP genotypes composition and competitive ability, toxin characteristic of toxic Microcystis population in aquaculture ponds based on preliminarily grasping the correlation of SNP genotype and competitive ability, toxin characteristic using the experimental ecological method; (3) establish foresight forewarning model of Microcystis blooms harm based on SNP genotypes composition of toxic Microcystis population combining with physical and chemical characteristics of aquaculture waters. The results of present project will provide precise and high-efficient foresight forewarning model of Microcystis blooms harm and reference data for forewarning and emergency prevention and disposal, which has important significance to restoring healthy ecosystem of aquaculture pond, and then achieving the goal of harm reduction of Microcystis bloom to freshwater aquaculture to the most extent.