我国小城镇的转型发展与治理研究

小城镇是沟通城乡之桥梁，有其自组织规律。而现行政策及过往研究未充分重视其在“培育创新产业提高生产力”、“缩减收入差距利于社会公平”及“融汇城乡系统应对生态挑战”等功用。因此本课题循着“一个中心，两个向度”的思考逻辑，研究小城镇可持续转型发展与治理。首先，在新古典经济学框架内在宏观总量层面自上而下构建兼顾效率、公平与生态的多目标社会整体福利函数，基于一般均衡的CGE模型解析城乡系统优化路径，构建多种计量模型分析多类型小城镇驱动机制及成本-效益；其次，在新经济社会学框架内，在微观个体层面将城镇和城乡系统均视为开放的兼具自组织和他组织的非均衡复杂系统，基于CA+MAS+大数据技术，分析相关经济、社会、生态和空间等环境或要素的演化规律；再次，扎根城乡系统中心情景，在中观整体层面集成CGE与复杂系统模型，提出小城镇由“成本约束型”向“效用驱动型”转变的转型路径；最后，基于SES治理框架提出对策建议。

Small towns are the bridges that interlink rural areas and cities. Current policies and research, however, have not paid enough attention to their functions such as “cultivating innovative industries to increase productivity”, “closing income gaps to improve social justice”, and “coordinating the entire urban-rural system to cope with ecological challenges”. Therefore, this research, following a framework of “one center, two dimensions”, aims to provide a solid and in-depth analysis of the sustainable transition and governance of small towns in China. First of all, adopting the framework of neo-classical economics, the research will build a multi-objective social welfare function that takes into account efficiency, equity, and ecology simultaneously on the macro-aggregate level and in a top-down manner. Then, based on the new social welfare function, a set of Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) models will be developed to derive the optimal paths of rural-to-urban transformation. The research will then employ multiple statistical models to explore the mechanisms and cost-benefit effects of the development of different types of small towns. Second, within the framework of the Socioeconomics, and considering small towns and the urban-rural system as open, non-equilibrium and complex systems of self-organization and other organizations at the micro level, the research will employ Cellular Automata (CA), Multi-agent Systems (MAS), and big data technologies to analyze the evolution rhythms of the economic, social, ecological, and spatial environments or dimensions of small towns. Third, placing rural-to-urban transition in the core of analysis, the research will integrate the CGE and complex system models earlier developed at the meso level, and propose a transition path of small towns from “cost-restrained” to “utility-driven”. In the last, drawing insights from the Social-ecological Systems (SES) framework, the research will outline a set of measures and policies to facilitate the sustainable transition of small towns.