Early social distancing policies in Europe, changes in mobility & COVID-19 case trajectories: Insights from Spring 2020.
Early social distancing policies in Europe, changes in mobility & COVID-19 case trajectories: Insights from Spring 2020.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0253071
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Gabrilovich E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Woskie LR;Hennessy J;Espinosa V;Tsai TC;Vispute S;Jacobson BH;Cattuto C;Gauvin L;Tizzoni M;Fabrikant A;Gadepalli K;Boulanger A;Pearce A;Kamath C;Schlosberg A;Stanton C;Bavadekar S;Abueg M;Hogue M;Oplinger A;Chou K;Corrado G;Shekel T;Jha AK;Wellenius GA;Gabrilovich E
社交距离已被广泛用于减轻SARS-CoV-2的社区传播。我们试图量化2020年春季欧洲27个国家的COVID-19社交距离政策对人口流动性和随后疾病发展轨迹的影响。我们从Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker获得了有关国家社交距离政策的数据，并从Google获得了汇总和匿名的移动数据。我们使用前后比较和两个线性混合效应模型，首先评估国家政策的实施与观察到的流动性变化之间的关系，然后评估流动性变化与随后几周COVID-19感染率之间的关系。与新冠疫情前的基线相比，西班牙的总人口流动性下降幅度最大（约70%），这是以离开住所的时间来衡量的，而瑞典的下降幅度最小（约20%）。流动性下降幅度最大的是强制性呆在家里的命令，其次是强制性工作场所关闭，学校关闭和非强制性工作场所关闭。虽然强制性就地避难命令与16.7%的流动性降低相关（95% CI：-23.7%至9.7%），但非强制性命令仅与8.4%的降低相关（95% CI：-14.9%至1.8%）。与其他政策类型相比，大型集会禁令与流动性的最小变化有关。流动性的变化反过来与COVID-19病例增长的变化有关。例如，离开居住地的时间减少10%与新冠肺炎病例减少11.8%（95%CI：3.8%，19.1%）相关。这项遍及欧洲的全面评估显示，强制居家令及关闭工作场所对疫情爆发时的人口流动及随后的COVID-19病例影响最大。在更好地了解政策的相对绩效后，各国可以更有效地投资于早期非药物干预措施，并将其作为目标。
Social distancing have been widely used to mitigate community spread of SARS-CoV-2. We sought to quantify the impact of COVID-19 social distancing policies across 27 European counties in spring 2020 on population mobility and the subsequent trajectory of disease. We obtained data on national social distancing policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google. We used a pre-post comparison and two linear mixed-effects models to first assess the relationship between implementation of national policies and observed changes in mobility, and then to assess the relationship between changes in mobility and rates of COVID-19 infections in subsequent weeks. Compared to a pre-COVID baseline, Spain saw the largest decrease in aggregate population mobility (~70%), as measured by the time spent away from residence, while Sweden saw the smallest decrease (~20%). The largest declines in mobility were associated with mandatory stay-at-home orders, followed by mandatory workplace closures, school closures, and non-mandatory workplace closures. While mandatory shelter-in-place orders were associated with 16.7% less mobility (95% CI: -23.7% to -9.7%), non-mandatory orders were only associated with an 8.4% decrease (95% CI: -14.9% to -1.8%). Large-gathering bans were associated with the smallest change in mobility compared with other policy types. Changes in mobility were in turn associated with changes in COVID-19 case growth. For example, a 10% decrease in time spent away from places of residence was associated with 11.8% (95% CI: 3.8%, 19.1%) fewer new COVID-19 cases. This comprehensive evaluation across Europe suggests that mandatory stay-at-home orders and workplace closures had the largest impacts on population mobility and subsequent COVID-19 cases at the onset of the pandemic. With a better understanding of policies’ relative performance, countries can more effectively invest in, and target, early nonpharmacological interventions.
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