Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study.
Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143783
复制
发表时间：
2021-02-25
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lao XQ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo C;Bo Y;Lin C;Li HB;Zeng Y;Zhang Y;Hossain MS;Chan JWM;Yeung DW;Kwok KO;Wong SYS;Lau AKH;Lao XQ
新型冠状病毒病2019（COVID-19）于2019年12月首次出现，现已成为大流行病。本研究旨在调查气象因素与全球COVID-19发病率和死亡率之间的关系。该研究包括2020年1月23日至4月13日期间来自190个国家的1，908，197例COVID-19确诊病例和119，257例死亡病例。我们使用了一个具有城市/国家级随机截距的分布滞后非线性模型来研究COVID 19发病率与每日温度，相对湿度和风速之间的关系。分析中考虑了一系列混杂因素，包括人口统计学、社会经济学、地理位置和政治策略。进行敏感性分析以检查关联的稳健性。COVID-19的发病率与温度的相关性比与相对湿度或风速的相关性更强。COVID-19发病率与温度之间存在负相关。相对于11 ℃时的风险，5 ℃时相应的14天累积相对风险为1.28 [95%置信区间（CI），1.20-1.36]，22 ℃时为0.75（95% CI，0.65-0.86）。观察到相对湿度与COVID-19发病率之间存在倒J形关联，最高风险为72%。较高的风速与COVID-19的发病率普遍较低有关，尽管这种关联很弱。敏感性分析通常得出类似的结果。COVID-19的发病率随着温度的升高而下降。我们的研究表明，COVID-19的传播在夏季可能会放缓，但在冬季可能会增加。
Novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in December 2019, has become a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality worldwide. This study included 1,908,197 confirmed cases of and 119,257 deaths from COVID-19 from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April, 2020. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with city-/country-level random intercept to investigate the associations between COVID19 incidence and daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A series of confounders were considered in the analysis including demographics, socioeconomics, geographic locations, and political strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the associations. The COVID-19 incidence showed a stronger association with temperature than with relative humidity or wind speed. An inverse association was identified between the COVID-19 incidence and temperature. The corresponding 14-day cumulative relative risk was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20–1.36] at 5 °C, and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65–0.86) at 22 °C with reference to the risk at 11 °C. An inverse J-shaped association was observed between relative humidity and the COVID-19 incidence, with the highest risk at 72%. A higher wind speed was associated with a generally lower incidence of COVID-19, although the associations were weak. Sensitivity analyses generally yielded similar results. The COVID-19 incidence decreased with the increase of temperature. Our study suggests that the spread of COVID-19 may slow during summer but may increase during winter.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Liu, Yan;Yin, Xin;Kuang, Hai-Xue
通讯作者：
Kuang, Hai-Xue
652个城市的环境颗粒物空气污染和每日死亡率
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1817364
发表时间：
2019-08-22
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Liu C;Chen R;Sera F;Vicedo-Cabrera AM;Guo Y;Tong S;Coelho MSZS;Saldiva PHN;Lavigne E;Matus P;Valdes Ortega N;Osorio Garcia S;Pascal M;Stafoggia M;Scortichini M;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Hurtado-Díaz M;Cruz J;Nunes B;Teixeira JP;Kim H;Tobias A;Íñiguez C;Forsberg B;Åström C;Ragettli MS;Guo YL;Chen BY;Bell ML;Wright CY;Scovronick N;Garland RM;Milojevic A;Kyselý J;Urban A;Orru H;Indermitte E;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti NRI;Katsouyanni K;Analitis A;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Chen J;Wu T;Cohen A;Gasparrini A;Kan H
通讯作者：
Kan H
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chan, Ken;Sewell, Philip;Benson, Trevor
通讯作者：
Benson, Trevor
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62114-0
发表时间：
2015-07-25
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Hashizume M;Lavigne E;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Tobias A;Tong S;Rocklöv J;Forsberg B;Leone M;De Sario M;Bell ML;Guo YL;Wu CF;Kan H;Yi SM;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PH;Honda Y;Kim H;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Ioannidis JPA
通讯作者：
Ioannidis JPA