Stochastic Analysis of Estuarine Hydrodynamics (RUI)

该提案的目的是制定一个二维 随机河口水动力模型，结合概率 描述河口系统边界和初始的因素 条件、参数字段和强制函数。 这项研究将 涉及参数和不确定性的分析的解决方案， 流体动力学方程，使用几种解决方案的算法， 随机预测问题，蒙特卡罗方法，拟线性化 结合扰动和算子分析以及直接解 随机微分方程的特性， 河口系统 解决方案算法将用于 生成概率密度函数和/或矩， 河口系统的水位和流速。 期间 在项目的最后阶段，解决方案算法将用于 红木溪河口水位的随机预报 在北方加州。 调查结果在预料之中 提供有关参数和强迫 函数的不确定性影响水的输出方差 海拔高度，以及用于预测 河口水质受工业污染物的影响， 城市和农业来源。

The objective of this proposal is to formulate a two dimensional stochastic estuarine hydrodynamic model, incorporating probabilistic factors that describe the estuarine system's boundary and initial conditions, parameter fields and forcing functions. The research will involve analysis of parameter and uncertainty on the solution of the hydrodynamic equations, use of several solution algorithms for the stochastic prediction problem, Monte Carlo method quasilinearization allied with perturbation and operator analysis and the direct solution of the stochastic differential equations that characterize behavior of the estuarine system. The solution algorithms will be used to generate the probability density functions and/or moments describing water elevations and flow rates in the estuarine system. During the final phase of the project, solution algorithms will be used for the stochastic prediction of water levels in the Redwood Creek estuary in northern California. The results of the investigation are expected to provide baseline information regarding how parameter and forcing function uncertainty affects the output variances of water elevations, and solution algorithms for predicting variations in estuarine water quality that is affected by pollutants from industrial, municipal and agricultural sources.