Trade, Innovation and Growth

目前国际经济学中最活跃和最令人兴奋的领域是综合国际贸易理论和产业组织理论的研究。该项目开发的模型能够审议在世界经济一体化的增长和发展背景下出现的重要动态问题。与以前对国际贸易的研究相比，处理这些问题的方法的一个显著特点是侧重于生产率变化的演变。在研究和发展经济学以及在不完全竞争的市场中边做边学的最新进展，使得能够构建这样一种模式，在这种模式中，创新是国际贸易模式的内生因素，而不是模式之外的因素决定的。战后经济表现的案例研究提供了充分的证据，证明一国的贸易制度与其长期表现之间存在系统的关系。例如，贸易在日本的成功故事中占据重要地位。然而，现有的贸易理论预测的是贸易的一次性静态影响，而不是在数据中观察到的长期动态规律。这个项目发展了一种解释经验规律的动态理论，并为评估相互竞争的解释提供了基础。这个项目有助于我们理解贸易机会、贸易战略和经济增长之间的联系。它还为实证研究人员确定的世界贸易中的动态过程提供了新的、更好的解释。这个项目解决了这样的重要问题：外向型、出口导向型欠发达经济体的增长速度是否快于那些专注于国内市场的经济体？这样的处方对所有时间点都有效吗？福利最大化是通过善意忽视还是积极促进出口的政策实现的？对于工业发达国家来说，是否应该使用产业政策来促进国内企业在其充满活力的国际竞争中的地位？贸易政策如何影响技术创新的速度？为了最大限度地促进全球经济的整体增长，国际合作的空间有多大？

The most active and exciting area in international economics currently consists of research like this project that synthesizes international trade theory and the theory of industrial organizations. This project develops models that allow consideration of the important dynamic issues that arise in the context of growth and development in an integrated world economy. A distinctive feature of the approach to these issues in comparison with earlier studies of international trade is the focus on the evolution of productivity change. Recent advances in the economics of research and development and learning-by-doing in markets with imperfect competition permit the construction of models in which innovation is endogenous to the model of international trade and not determined by factors outside the model. Case studies of post-war economic performance provide ample evidence of a systematic relationship between a country's trade regime and its long-run performance. For example, trade figures prominently in the Japanese success story. Yet existing trade theory predicts one-shot static effects of trade instead of the long-term dynamic regularities observed in the data. This project develops a dynamic theory that explains the empirical regularities and provides a basis for assessing competing explanations. This project contributes to our understanding of the link between trading opportunities, trade strategy, and economic growth. It also provides new and better explanations of dynamic processes in world trade identified by empirical researchers. This project addresses such important questions as: Do outward-looking, export-oriented less developed economies grow faster than those that concentrate instead on domestic markets? Does such a prescription hold for all points in time? And is welfare maximized by a policy of benign neglect or active promotion of exports? For the case of the industrially advanced countries, should industrial policies be used to promote domestic firms in their dynamic international competitions? How does trade policy influence the rate of technological innovation? What scope exists for international cooperation to maximize overall growth of the global economy?