Studies in Monetary Economics

该项目继续就下列领域的重要问题开展工作： 货币经济学和商业周期理论。 项目 包括四个部分：1）研究如何做好简单 货币数量理论所揭示的货币规律， 价格、汇率和利率变动的帐户 （2）发展一种理论来解释 观察到的资产价格变动与 其相关基本面的变动; 3）估计 可归因于货币政策的产出变动比例 与真实的干扰相反;以及4）估计社会 可预防的经济不稳定的代价。 研究人员先前的工作表明， 一个经济体的货币和 供应，其长期通货膨胀率和 名义利率。 然而，如此多的其他力量冲击着 短期内的价格和利率， 这些长期的平均关系实际上并不意味着 宏观经济政策的紧迫问题。 这个项目 在过去工作的基础上， 将汇率包括在内，并通过研究 “剩余”，即价格、利率和汇率的变动 经济的货币供应量无法解释的利率。 这 工作应提供重要的新的见解， 宏观经济中的货币。 研究人员将利率与观察结果联系起来， 短期内的变化比长期预测的要大得多 货币与利率之间的长期关系日益密切 大量证据表明，股票市场价格的变化比 根据其基本面的变化来预测。 为什么金融 市场如此动荡？ 该项目开发了一种新的理论， 金融市场的“流动性受限”交易， 解释这些难题，并提供了一个框架， 对股票市场等重要事件的系统研究 1987年10月坠毁

This project continues work on important issues in the field of monetary economics and business cycle theory. The project consists of four parts: 1) research on how well simple regularities or laws captured by the quantity theory of money can account for movements in prices, exchange rates and interest rates; 2) development of a theory for explaining the large observed differences between movements in asset prices and movements in their associated fundamentals; 3) estimating the fraction of output variability that can be attributed to monetary as opposed to real disturbances; and 4) estimating the social cost of preventable economic instability. Previous work by the investigator demonstrated that there was a remarkably stable, simple relationship between an economy's money supply, its long run inflation rate and the average level of nominal interest rates. Yet so many other forces impinge on prices and interest rates in the short run that agreement on these long run average relationships imply virtually nothing about immediate questions of macroeconomic policy. This project builds on this past work by extending the study of long run regularities to include exchange rates and by studying the "residuals," the movements in prices, interest rates and exchange rates that are unexplained by the economy's money supply. This work should provide important new insights into the role played by money in the macro-economy. The investigator relates the observation that interest rates are much more variable in the short run than predicted by the long term relationship between money and interest rates to a growing body of evidence that stock market prices are more variable than predicted by movements in their fundamentals. Why are financial markets so volatile? This project develops a new theory of "liquidity constrained" trading in financial markets that could explain these puzzles and also provides a framework for systematic study of such important events as the stock market crash in October, 1987.