Accomplishment-based Renewal of Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in Output, Employment, Prices

这是一个基于知识的更新， 微观经济来源的生产性研究计划 宏观经济波动。 根据以前的赠款， 调查人员证明，生产率波动 由于产品需求和要素供给的变化， 技术冲击。 这一结果挑战了一个关键假设 真实的商业周期理论，一个重要的思想流派， 宏观经济学 这一结果激发了经验和 研究者和其他人根据需求开展理论工作 商业周期。 新的支持使调查人员能够 继续这个研究议程。 研究人员还开发了一种创新而强大的测试方法 竞争性产业的假设。 如果一个行业 竞争力，然后索洛生产率残差（差异 产出增长率和 投入）应不随产品需求的外生变化而变化 和要素生产率。 根据以前的赠款， 研究人员能够拒绝一个不变性命题， 大量的美国工业。 这个项目探讨了什么 在这些行业中存在一种均衡。 初步 研究表明，输入和输出的行为，如果 技术的规模收益不断增加。 未来研究 研究产业组织外部性的证据， 更具体地说，一个公司的效率是否提高时， 与之打交道的公司的活动水平更高。 的 研究人员开发了一种新的方法来测试 收益递增和厚市场外部性的存在。 具体而言，计量经济学方法是为了测试 主要总体经济变量的自发噪音。 的 输出中自发运动的存在是 回报递增和市场外部性密集的经济体。 这项研究为我们的研究做出了重大贡献。 了解宏观经济波动和工业 organization. 报酬递增经济研究 尤其重要，因为大多数经验和理论 产业组织中的工作与 规模收益恒定。 重大外部性的证据 在美国工业中，研发支出也表明， 比以前认为的更重要。

This is an accomplishment-based renewal of an extremely productive research program on the microeconomic sources of macroeconomic volatility. Under the previous grant the investigator demonstrated that fluctuations in productivity are induced by changes in product demand and factor supplies, rather than technology shocks. This result challenges a key assumption of real business cycle theory, an important school of thought in macroeconomics. This result has stimulated empirical and theoretical work by the investigator and others on demand driven business cycles. Renewed support permits the investigator to pursue this research agenda. The investigator also developed an innovative and powerful test of the assumption of a competitive industry. If an industry is competitive, then the Solow productivity residual (the difference between the rate of growth of output and the weighted growths of inputs) should be invariant to exogenous shifts in product demand and factor productivity. Under the previous grant the investigator was able to reject the invariance proposition for a large number of U.S. industries. This project explores what kind of equilibrium prevails in these industries. Preliminary research suggests that inputs and outputs behave as if the technology had increasing returns of scale. Future research examines evidence of externalities in industrial organization or, more specifically, whether one firm's efficiency rises when the firms it deals with have higher levels of activity. The investigator develops a new methodology for testing for the presence of increasing returns and thick-market externalities. Specifically, econometric methods are developed for testing for spontaneous noise in major aggregate economic variables. The presence of spontaneous movements in output is evidence of economies with increasing returns and thick-market externalities. This research makes significant contributions to our understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations and industrial organization. The research on economies with increasing returns is especially important because most empirical and theoretical work in industrial organization assumes competition with constant-returns-to-scale. Evidence of significant externalities within U.S. industries would also suggest that R&D expenditures are more important than previously believed.