Homicide in Urban America: 1950-1980

该项目处理城市杀人率的原因。 的PI 将从四个相互竞争的理论视角得出假设， 主题：（1）暴力亚文化，认为高暴力地区 杀人率的特点是预期（或tolera- TED）暴力程度;（2）社会经济，暴力的概念， 是物质匮乏的结果，比如杀人 （3）惩罚与威慑， 杀人率的上升和下降是有确定性的， 惩罚的严重性;（4）生活模式，一个更复杂的概念 包括动机、机会和缺乏有效的 像警察这样的监护人。 每个理论都有强大的支持者，但 数据很少被用来比较预测的成功 每一个。 部分原因是缺乏经验验证- 长期以来，难以获得纵向数据。 该项目使用匹配区域，时间跨度为30年， 估计一个包含所有四种理论假设的模型。 结果应允许评估的贡献 每个理论中规定的因素，以及理解条件 每一个理论过程最有可能出现的位置。

This project addresses causes of urban homicide rates. The PI will draw hypotheses from four competing theoretical perspec- tives: (1) Subculture of violence, the idea that areas with high homicide rates are characterized by a higher expected (or tolera- ted) level of violence; (2) Socioeconomic, the idea that violence is a consequence of material deprivation, such as homicides connected with robbery; (3) Punishment and deterrence, the idea that homicide rates rise and fall with changes in certainty and severity of punishment; (4) Life patterns, a more complex idea involving motivation, opportunities, and lack of effective guardians such as police. Each theory has strong proponents, but data seldom have been applied to compare the predictive success of each. Part of the reason for the lack of empirical verifica- tion has been the difficulty of obtaining longitudinal data. This project uses matched areas, with a 30-year time span, to estimate a model incorporating hypotheses from all four theories. The results should permit assessment of contribution of the factors specified in each theory, and understanding conditions under which each theoretical process is most likely to appear.