The Question of International Convergence of Per Capita Consumption

近年来，关于各国是否会在长期内趋向于趋同于可以用人均收入衡量的相同的生产率水平，存在着很大的争论。实际上，这场辩论涉及的问题是，贫穷国家的人均收入增长率是否往往高于富裕国家，或者换一种说法：贫穷国家是否有“追赶”的趋势？本研究的目的是将数据和增长理论结合起来，聚焦于经济趋同问题。这个项目将涉及对趋同或不趋同的原因进行经验和理论调查。对追赶问题所采取的方法首先将这个问题重申为关于初始条件对随后增长的影响的问题。这项研究的论点是，最初的人均收入过于总和，这是一种衡量初始条件的指标，是我们对一个国家随后增长预期的基础。通过在增长理论的背景下分解初始条件，可以极大地提高我们对为什么一些贫穷国家的增长速度远远快于富裕国家的理解，而另一些国家则指出。这个项目很重要，因为它将为欠发达国家的经济增长前景提供新的见解。

There has been much debate in recent years over whether countries will tend in the long run to converge to the same level of productivity which can be measured in terms of per capita income. In practice, the debate concerns the question of whether poor countries tend to have higher per capita income growth rates than rich ones, or put another way: is there a tendency for poor countries to "catch up"? The purpose of this research is to integrate data and growth theory to focus on the question of economic convergence. This project will involve an empirical and theoretical investigation of the causes of convergence or lack thereof. The approach taken to the question of catching up begins by restating the question as one concerning the effects of initial conditions on subsequent growth. It is the contention in this study that initial per capita income is too aggregate a measure of initial conditions on which to base our expectations of a country's subsequent growth. By disaggregating initial conditions in a growth-theoretic context it is possible to greatly improve our understanding of why some poor countries have grown much faster than rich countries while others have note. This project is important because it will provide new insights about the prospects for economic growth in the less developed countries.