U.S.-U.K. Cooperative Research: Population Dynamics and Ecological Stability

该奖项将支持肯塔基大学Philip Crowley博士和英国伯克郡阿斯科特西尔伍德公园帝国学院人口生物学中心J.H. Lawton博士在种群生物学和生态学方面的合作研究。建议的研究将集中在两个方面：L)单个种群或种群群的丰度趋于稳定的可能趋势，以及如何最好地检测、测量和概念化这一稳定过程；2)在空间上充分分散或分裂成部分相连的亚种群的可能性可以减少种群变异和灭绝的风险。拟议的项目是为了促进关于自然种群的稳定性和持久性的理论和数据的汇合。每个项目的具体目标包括：1)密度依赖性和稳定性：设计和改进统计上可防御和敏感的技术，用于检测单个种群密度序列中的密度依赖性；2)超种群稳定性和持久性；考虑由准独立部分组成的种群模型，这些部分因分散而联系微弱，并受到适度环境波动的冲击，并对模型的预测进行实验室测试。在拟议的研究中所涉及的问题在人口和群落生态学中具有根本性的重要性。虽然很难用经验来证明，但密度依赖对我们理解人口是如何调节的至关重要。此外，在人类引起的生态压力和全球气候变化的时代，理解持久性和测量稳定性变得越来越重要。西尔伍德公园的人口生物学中心为人口动态的合作研究提供了一个出色的环境。克劳利博士和他的英国合作者的专业知识是互补的，应该有助于加强拟议的研究。

This award will support collaborative research in population biology and ecology between Dr. Philip Crowley, University of Kentucky, and Dr. J.H. Lawton, Center for Population Biology, Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, England. The proposed study will focus on two areas: l) the possible tendency for the abundances of individual populations or of groups of populations to stabilize, and on how best to detect, measure and conceptualize this stabiliza- tion process, and 2) the possibility that being sufficiently spread out in space or fragmented into partially connected sub-populations can reduce population variability and the risk of extinction. The proposed projects represent attempts to facilitate the convergence of theory and data concerning the stability and persistence of natural populations. Among the specific objectives of each project are: 1) Density-Dependence and Stability: to devise and improve statistically defensible and sensitive techniques for detecting density-dependence in density sequences for individual populations and 2) Metapopulation Stability and Persistence: to consider models of populations that consist of quasi-independent parts weakly linked by dispersal and buffeted by moderate environmental fluctuations and to conduct laboratory tests of the models' predictions. The issues addressed in the proposed research are of fundamental importance in population and community ecology. Though difficult to document empirically, density dependence is central to our understanding of how populations are regulated. Moreover, understanding persistence and measuring stability are becoming increasingly critical in an era of human-induced ecological stress and global climatic change. The Center for Population Biology at Silwood Park provides an outstanding environment for collaborative research in population dynamics. The expertise of Dr. Crowley and his British collaborators is complementary, and should serve to enhance the proposed research.