Quantitative Business Cycle Theory

这项研究的目的是确定 技术变革在影响战后国内和 世界商业周期。 此前的研究表明，如果 这种技术冲击是波动的唯一来源， 美国经济总量的可变性 只有观测到的三分之二大。 这 项目将调查这些估计的敏感性， 这些因素尚未被系统地考虑到。 路上了 一个主要因素是国际贸易的作用， 国内冲击和国外冲击如何相互关联 以及是否存在技术溢出效应 在不同的国家。 另一个重要因素是人力资本 积累 第三是耐用消费品的作用， 总产出的重要组成部分， 相对较少关注真实的商业周期模型。 的 战略是构建可计算的一般均衡 模型，可用于执行实验室实验， 做一些重要的测量， 这些模型，从而提高答案的可靠性 所提出的问题。 这项研究很重要 因为它将增加我们对技术如何 变化可能会影响商业周期。

The purpose of this research is to determine what role technological change has played in affecting postwar domestic and world business cycles. Previous research has suggested that if such technological shocks were the only source of fluctuation, the variability of the aggregate U.S. economy would have been only about two-thirds as large as what has been observed. This project will investigate the sensitivity of those estimates to factors that have not yet been taken into account in a systematic way. A major factor is the role of international trade and the related question of how correlated domestic and foreign shocks are, and whether there are spill-over effects in technology across countries. Another important factor is human capital accumulation. A third is the role of consumer durables, an important component of aggregate output, which has received relatively little attention in real business cycle models. The strategy is both to construct computable general equilibrium models that can be used to perform laboratory experiments and to do measurements that are important for quantitatively restricting these models and, thus, improving the reliability of the answers to the questions being addressed. This research is important because it will increase our understanding of how technological change may influence the business cycle.