Monetary Policy, Demographics and the Business Cycle

货币政策、人口统计和商业周期

• 批准号: 1919362
• 负责人: John Leahy
• 金额: $ 41.4万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-01 至 2023-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1919362&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Monetary; Policy; Demographics; Business; Cycle

AbstractUnderstanding how aging affects macroeconomic policy becomes increasingly important as baby-boomers retire in the U.S. and there are shifts in the age-composition of population in the world. This project documents how changes in age distribution affects the response of incomes and employment to monetary policy. Preliminary results indicate that states with many young residents appear less sensitive to monetary policy, whereas states with many middle-aged residents appear more sensitive. The project explores the underlying reasons of such differences and uses these results to construct models of the economy that more accurately reflect the demographic changes observed. The research improves the understanding of how monetary policy impacts the economy in relation to demographic changes. Thus, the project helps the Federal Reserve and the private sector anticipate changes to the economy brought about by an aging US population. Similarly, the research has implications for monetary policies of other economies where there are shifts in age-composition. The project uses the U.S. states as a laboratory to explore how age distribution influences monetary policy. The proposed research looks at how state level variables such as income and employment respond to monetary policy initiatives. These responses are then related to the age composition of the state, while controlling for other reasons that states may differ. Preliminary results indicate that incomes of all age groups respond more to interest rates in a state with more middle-aged residents. These preliminary results indicate that what matters most to an individual is not their own age, but the age distribution of the state in which they live. The proposal further looks at the mechanism that drives this sensitivity. Potential mechanisms include greater sensitivity of construction and proprietor?s income to the proportion of the middle aged and differences in the elasticity of demand across age groups. In the theoretical component of the proposal, empirical results are used to construct models of the economy that accurately reflect the demographic influences we observe. Explicitly considering demographics improves the understanding of monetary policy transmission and has broader implications on the economy as population ages and baby boomers retire.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

随着美国婴儿潮一代的退休以及世界人口年龄构成的变化，了解老龄化如何影响宏观经济政策变得越来越重要。该项目记录了年龄分布的变化如何影响收入和就业对货币政策的反应。初步结果表明，年轻居民多的州对货币政策的敏感性较低，而中年居民多的州对货币政策的敏感性较高。该项目探讨了这种差异的根本原因，并利用这些结果构建更准确地反映所观察到的人口变化的经济模型。该研究提高了对货币政策如何影响经济与人口变化的理解。因此，该项目有助于联邦和私营部门预测美国人口老龄化给经济带来的变化。同样，这项研究对年龄构成发生变化的其他经济体的货币政策也有影响。该项目以美国各州为实验室，探索年龄分布如何影响货币政策。拟议的研究着眼于州一级的变量，如收入和就业如何对货币政策举措作出反应。然后，这些反应与州的年龄构成有关，同时控制各州可能不同的其他原因。初步结果表明，在中年居民较多的州，所有年龄组的收入对利率的反应更大。这些初步结果表明，对一个人来说，最重要的不是他们自己的年龄，而是他们所生活的国家的年龄分布。该提案进一步探讨了驱动这种敏感性的机制。潜在的机制包括更大的敏感性建设和业主？收入与中年人口比例的关系以及各年龄组需求弹性的差异。在该提案的理论部分，实证结果用于构建准确反映我们观察到的人口影响的经济模型。明确地考虑人口因素有助于提高对货币政策传导的理解，并随着人口老龄化和婴儿潮一代的退休，对经济产生更广泛的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。