Early Fertility and Mortality Change in Europe

该项目将完成对克罗地亚历史上最大的已知家庭重组数据集之一的分析。它将开发和测试新的统计方法来处理不完整的数据，以提高数据恢复的效率。它将确认对波动的经济和政治条件采取的生育控制措施，并证明生育率下降的早期开始（CA. 1780）是对人口逐渐贫困的反应。它将表明，人口反应主要取决于经济和社会组织因素，而不是广泛的文化因素。这项研究很重要，因为它扩展和完善了人口从大家庭向小家庭转变的理论。了解这在过去是如何发生的，将有助于我们设计影响未来家庭规模的方案。

This project will complete analysis of one of the largest known family reconstitution data sets from Croatia, in historical Europe. It will develop and test new statistical methods for dealing with incomplete data to improve the efficiency of data recovery. It will confirm fertility control responses to fluctuating economic and political conditions and demonstrate early onset of fertility decline (CA. 1780) as a response to progressive inmiseration of the population. It will show that demographic response is conditioned primarily by economic and social organizational factors rather than broad cultural factors. This research is important because it expands and improves the theory of the demographic transition from large to small families. Understanding how this has happened in the past will help us design programs to impact family size in the future.