Television Advertising in Political Campaigns: A Study of the 1992 California Senate Races

尽管在竞选广告上投入了大量资源，但关于广告对选举结果的独立影响，几乎没有可靠的证据。该项目采用多方法策略来评估电视竞选广告对1992年加州参议院选举的影响。通过使用现实的“实地实验”，调查人员评估了特定竞选广告和特定广告配对的效果。在这些实验中，南加州选民的代表性横截面将由不同的参议员候选人播放广告。在接触到广告之后，实验参与者被问到一系列关于他们的政治信仰和偏好的问题。这种方法可以估计特定广告和特定广告策略对个人选民行为的有效性。实验结果通过使用全州范围的民调数据、候选人领域播出的每一条竞选广告的详尽分析和对竞选经理的采访来复制。例如，选民偏好的趋势将在整个竞选过程中被跟踪，涉及特定候选人使用的电视广告的数量以及广告的内容。此外，在选举后，每个竞选活动的经理将接受采访，以确定他们的广告“游戏计划”。主要调查范围涉及广播广告对选民投票率和选民选择的影响。政治广告如何影响个人参与政治进程的兴趣和愿望？特别重要的是攻击性广告对选民参与的影响。其他正在调查的领域包括“问题”广告与“形象”广告作为刺激选民兴趣和形成的手段的相对有效性。调查人员还评估了广告对候选人选择的影响。这里的一些重要问题包括，广告在初选和大选活动中的不同重要性，广告在不同选民群体中的作用是否不同，以及广告的说服效果在多大程度上受到新闻媒体报道模式的制约。除了广告对民主进程的长期影响外，这项研究还将提供关于竞选广告战略对选举结果的影响的严格证据。

Despite the huge amounts of resources invested in campaign advertising, little reliable evidence exists concerning the independent effects of advertising on electoral outcomes. This project applies a multi-method strategy to assess the impact of televised campaign advertising on the 1992 California Senate elections. Through the use of realistic "field experiments," the investigators assess the effects of particular campaign ads and particular pairing of ads. In these experiments, a representative cross- section of the Southern California electorate will be shown ads aired by the various senatorial candidates. Following exposure to the ads, experimental participants are asked a variety of questions concerning their political beliefs and preferences. This method permits estimation of the effectiveness of particular ads and particular advertising strategies on the behavior of individual voters. The experimental results are replicated using statewide polling data, an exhaustive analysis of every campaign ad aired by the field of candidates and interviews with campaign managers. Trends in voter preference, for instance, will be tracked across the course of the campaign in relation to the amount of televised advertising used by particular candidates as well as the content of advertising. In addition, following the election, the managers of each campaign will be interviewed so as to ascertain their advertising "game plan." The major areas of investigation concern the effects of broadcast advertising on voter turnout and voter choice. How does political advertising affect individuals' interest and desire to participate in the political process? Of particular importance is the impact of attack advertising on voter participation. Other areas under investigation include the relative effectiveness of "issue" versus "image" ads as a means of stimulating voter interest and formation. The investigators also assess the effects of advertising on candidate choice. Some of the important questions here include the differential importance of advertising in primary and general election campaigns, whether ads work differently among different groups of voters, and the degree to which the persuasive effects of ads are conditioned by patterns of news media coverage. This research will provide rigorous evidence concerning the effects of campaign advertising strategy on electoral outcomes in addition to the long-term impact of advertising on the democratic process.