The Dynamics of Closed Basin Hydrology and Climate Variability

由于对人为气候变化的关注，需要更好地了解极端水文(干旱和洪水)与长期气候变异性之间的关系。建议利用闭合盆地湖泊及其流域水文学研究这些关系。大盐湖盆地是干旱和异质的。它的气候信号与美国西部有很好的相关性。最近对全球气候变化的决定论来源(如ENSO)的气候研究取得了非常丰硕的成果。这种研究通过创造性的数据解释以及反馈和相互作用的建模而蓬勃发展。拟议的研究也本着同样的精神。人们感兴趣的是确定持续的气候异常及其产生机制；聚合流域水文反应和反馈；不同机制之间的转换；它们对初始条件和参数的敏感性，以及对强迫函数动态变化的敏感性。采用了非线性动力系统的观点。提出了数据分析和系统辨识的非参数方法。提出了基于物理和数据的关于湖泊-盆地-气候耦合系统中混沌行为的可能性以及多个制度的存在的论点。提出了研究系统灵敏度的有限物理-统计-动力学模型的发展。

The need for a better understanding of the relation between hydrologic extremes (droughts and floods) and long term climatic variability is underscored by concerns of anthropogenic climate change. Investigations into these relations using closed basin lakes and their basin hydrology are proposed. The Great Salt Lake basin is arid and heterogeneous. Its climatic signal is well correlated with the Western U.S. Recent climate research into sources of determinism (e.g. ENSO) in global climatic variability has been very fruitful. Such research has blossomed through creative data interpretation, and modeling of feedbacks and interactions. The proposed research is in the same spirit. On interest is the identification of persistent climatic anomalies, their generating regimes; the aggregate basin hydrologic response and feedbacks; transitions between regimes; their sensitivity to initial conditions and parameters, and to dynamic changes in forcing functions. A nonlinear dynamical systems perspective is adopted. Nonparametric methods for data analysis and systgm identification are proposed. Physical and data based arguments for the possibility of chaotic behavior in the coupled lake-basin-climate system, and the presence of multiple regimes are advanced. The development of finite physical-statistical-dynamic models to study system sensitivities is proposed.