Hurricane Wind Hazards and Design Risks in the United States

项目第一阶段 调查使用的基本假设 在飓风风险评估中， 强调发展和 飓风风场评估 模型 一个新的风场模型， 根据一个数字的结果， 飓风边界层模型， 用阵风系数发展 信息仅用于 飓风 该模型包括 风暴平移的影响 更现实的时尚 用于开发的风场模型 ASCE 7-88设计风速 使用 新的模型和分析，网站- 具体的数值模拟 迈阿密的飓风风速 纽约市的表演。 这些模拟表明， 选择用于 得出统计分布 关键参数至关重要。 在 此外，新的Windfield模型 被发现有明显的 对预测风速的影响， 特别是在纽约地区， 在快速发展中的不对称性 移动的风暴很重要。 项目中心二期 研究导致了 飓风风险的改善 分析和减少 偏差和不确定性 飓风的预测 风速 特别强调 将具有全国性的意义 如果成功的话， 未来风荷载设计准则 美国等 飓风肆虐的国家 极端的重要贡献者 风的频率 一些潜在的应用 这项研究的结果将是： 风荷载建议， 专业化结构 加载和分析产品， 特定类别的结构， 如输电塔;风险 海上设施分析; 针对具体场地的分析和设计 建议.

The Phase 1 of the project investigated basic assumptions used in hurricane risk assessment, with emphasis on developing and evaluating hurricane windfield models. A new windfield model, based on the results of a numerical hurricane boundary layer model, was developed with gust factor information derived exclusively for hurricanes. The model includes the effect of storm translation in a more realistic fashion than does the windfield model used to develop ASCE 7-88 design windspeeds. Using the new model and analyses, site- specific numerical simulations of hurricane windspeeds at Miami and New York City have been performed. These simulations indicate that the selection of the subregion used to derive statistical distributions of key parameters is critical. In addition, the new windfield model was found to have a pronounced effect on the predicted windspeeds, particularly in the New York area, where the asymmetries in fast- moving storms are significant. The Phase II of the project centers on research leading to fundamental improvements in hurricane risk analysis and the reduction of the biases and uncertainties associated with the prediction of hurricane windspeeds. Particular emphasis will have nationwide significance and, if successful, influence future wind load design criteria in the United States and other countries where hurricanes are important contributors to extreme wind frequencies. Some potential application of results from this research will be: wind loading recommendations by region; specialized structural loading and analysis products for specific categories of structures, such as transmission towers; risk analyses for offshore facilities; site-specific analysis and design recommendations.