CRB: Exploring the Significance of Model Structure in Viability and Harvesting Analyses

小行星9402314 模型在资源管理和保护生物学中发挥着越来越重要的作用。这些“应用生态模型”的使用精神与基本生态理论不同-它们被用来预测情景或确定特定物种的管理方案，并以粗略的数据为基础，这些数据往往是在巨大的时间压力下分析的。典型地，相当任意的决定是关于模型结构的--是否包括年龄和阶段结构，多少年龄类，应该包括什么类型的环境变化，应该考虑密度依赖性，等等。不幸的是，关于模型结构的决策的含义几乎从未以最基本的方式进行过探索。在这项保护和恢复生物学研究中，PI将对不同的资源管理和可行性模型进行计算密集的比较，其中模拟数据以不同的方式建模，并对比不同建模方法的性能。为了将这些研究建立在真实的世界问题上，PI还将同样广泛的模型应用于两个案例研究：北方斑点猫头鹰的生存能力模型和塞伦盖蒂角马的收获模型。目标有三个方面：（1）使用模拟数据集来理解生活史结构和环境变异性方面如何影响模型结果对模型结构的敏感性，（2）当提供真实的数据时，开发用于评估不同模型的方便的计算方法，（3）警告应用生态学家只停留在一种模型结构而不探索替代方案的危险。 这项研究将为资源管理、保护生物学和生态理论提供重要的联系。需要解决应用生态模型的优点和局限性是至关重要的。很多时候，决策是在不完整的数据和不完整的分析基础上做出的。这项研究将为评估物种保护和自然资源管理的各种模式的效用提供基础。 ***

9402314 Kareiva Models are playing an increasingly important role in resource management and conservation biology. These "applied ecological models" are used in a different spirit than basic ecological theory -- they are used to project scenarios or identify management options for particular species, and are based upon sketchy data often analyzed under tremendous time pressure. Typically, rather arbitrary decisions are made about model structure -- whether or not to include age and stage structure, how many age classes, what type of environmental variability should be included, should density dependence be considered, and so forth. Unfortunately, the implications of decisions about model structure are virtually never explored in even the most rudimentary fashion. In this Conservation and Restoration Biology research, the PI's will perform a computationally intense comparison of different resource management and viability models in which simulated data is modeled in different ways, and the performance of the different modeling approaches is contrasted. To ground these studies in real world problems, the PI's will also apply the same wide variety of models to two case studies: a viability model for the Northern Spotted Owl, and a harvesting model for the Serengeti wildebeest. The goals are threefold: (1) to use simulated data sets to understand how aspects of life history structure and environmental variability influence the sensitivity of model results to model structure, (2) to develop convenient computational approaches for evaluating different models when presented with real data, and (3) to alert applied ecologists to the danger of settling on one model structure without exploring alternatives. %%% This research will provide an important linkage between resource management, conservation biology, and ecological theory. The need to address the advantages and limitations of applied ecological models is paramount. Too often, decisions are made with incomplete data, and based on incomplete an alyses. This research will provide the basis for assessing the utility of various models for the conservation of species and management of natural resources. ***