Lower Probability Models for Frequentist Phenomena

Fine博士正在继续他对基于频率现象模型的较低概率的发展的研究，并继续探索这些模型的含义，特别是当它们与传统概率分析这类现象形成对比时。他之前的研究使他打破了相对频率收敛和平稳性假设之间的纽带。平稳性假设的一个例子是在分析连续试验的独立且同分布的频率现象时的常见假设。在这项新的研究中，Fine博士正在检查一些形式的证据，这些证据将导致采用较低的概率模型；继续发展构建与证据相符的较低概率模型的能力；并通过采用和研究适当的较低预期概念来加强演算。较低的期望值可以为相关的条件性和独立性概念以及统计决策理论的雏形提供入口。希望这项研究将通过探索传统概率的替代方案来鼓励扩大概率推理的范围，并具有讨论概率的各种解释的一些活力。

Dr. Fine is continuing his research into the development of lower probability based on models for frequentist phenomena and is continuing to explore the implications of such models, particularly as they contrast with analyses of such phenomena by conventional probability. His previous research allowed him to break a bond between convergence of relative frequencies and hypotheses of stationarity. An example of a stationarity hypothesis is the common assumption in analysis of frequentist phenomena of successive trials being independent and identically distributed. In this new research, Dr. Fine is examining some forms of evidence that would lead to the adoption of lower probability models; continuing to develop an ability to construct lower probability models to conform with the evidence; and strengthening the calculus by adoption and study of an appropriate notion of lower expectation. Lower expectation can provide entry to associated concepts of conditioning and independence and to the rudiments of statistical decision theory. It is hoped that this research will encourage the broadening of the scope of probabilistic reasoning by exploring alternatives to conventional probability with some of the vigor with which the various interpretations of probability have been discussed.