Predicting the Response of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Elevated CO2 and Climate Change: A Modeling and Experimental Collaboration

9524058雷诺预测陆地生态系统对CO2浓度升高和气候变化的响应：建模和实验合作由于大气中CO2浓度的增加，预计未来地球的全球气候变化将比人类历史上任何可比时期都要快。预计这一变化将对自然和农业生态系统产生重大影响。社会为这种变化做好准备的能力部分取决于我们能否成功地开发出具有足够信心和筹备时间的生态系统反应预测模拟模型。本研究将通过将现有生态系统模型的预测与两个正在进行的陆地实地项目进行比较，来测试一套现有生态系统模型的优缺点。其中一个项目是研究二氧化碳浓度上升对佛罗里达灌木-橡树生态系统中碳积累和养分循环的影响，另一个项目是研究北方俄罗斯二氧化碳通量的区域和季节变化。反过来，这两个实地项目将受益于这些模型的开发和应用，以检验关于CO2和气候升高对陆地生态系统碳收支影响的假设。这项研究是我们努力建立和应用模型以更好地了解二氧化碳浓度升高和气候变化对陆地生态系统影响的重要“下一步”。 ??

9524058 Reynolds Predicting the Response of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Elevated CO2 and Climate Change: A Modeling and Experimental Collaboration As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2, the global climate of the Earth is predicted to change in the future more rapidly than it has over any comparable period of human history. This change is expected to have significant impacts on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for such changes depends in part on our success in developing predictive simulation models of ecosystem responses that have sufficient confidence and lead time. This study will test the strengths and weaknesses of a suite of existing ecosystem models by comparing their predictions to two on-going terrestrial field projects. One of these projects is a study of the effect of rising CO2 on carbon accumulation and nutrient cycling in a scrub-oak ecosystem in Florida and the other is a study of regional and seasonal variation in CO2 fluxes in northern Russia. Both of these field projects will, in turn, benefit from the development and application of these models to test hypotheses concerning the effect of elevated CO2 and climate on carbon budgets of terrestrial ecosystems. This research is an important "next step" in our efforts to build and apply models to develop a better understanding of the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. ??