The Nature and Predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Using Statistical and Dynamical Modeling Approaches

题目：利用统计和动力学建模方法研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的性质和可预测性。本文将讨论非线性动力学和随机过程在热带地区短期气候变率中的相对重要性，如厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）。争论的焦点是这些变量的潜在动力是否稳定，其中嵌入了多少非线性结构，以及不同的动力对模型的预测能力有什么影响。为了阐明这些问题，建议用统计模型和动力学模型进行一系列数值实验。这项研究将提高我们对ENSO本质的认识，并可能增强我们预测ENSO的能力。

Abstract ATM-9616582 Chang, Ping Texas A & M University ATM-9616439 Penland, Cecile University of Colopado Title: An Investigation of the Nature and Predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Using Statistical and Dynamical Modeling Approaches This proposal will deal with the relative importance of nonlinear dynamics and stochastic processes in the short term climate variability in the tropics, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At issue is whether underlying dynamics of the variabilities are stable, how much nonlinear structure is imbedded in them and what impact the different dynamics have to the predictive skill of a model. To shed light on these issues, it is proposed to conduct a series of numerical experiments with both statistical and dynamical models. This research will enhance our knowledge of the nature of ENSO and might strengthen our ability to predict ENSO.