Collabortive Research: Understanding, Improving and Combining Subjective Judgements

小行星9632448 许多不确定性下的决策依赖于专家的判断，因为缺乏合适的统计信息。 例子包括军事和国际政策背景，商业预测，医疗诊断和地震预测。 专家们并不总是意见一致，也不总是 以最能反映他们潜在观点的方式表达自己。 这项研究将开发新的和改进的程序，以引出和结合他们的判断，以产生最准确的诊断结论。 该项目将研究在不完全知识条件下影响人类判断的因素。 该研究还将为这种判断开发新的分析程序，其中考虑到通常存在的随机误差分量的来源和性质。 这个项目的一行将问为什么，如果人们通常真的过度自信，他们会在特定的程序和分析方法下表现出系统性的自信不足。 第二行将探讨为什么，至少在某些判断任务中，人们对不确定信息的思考方式取决于他们被要求给出的反应类型。 第三行将研究人们如何学习做出概率估计以及反馈如何影响这些估计。 所有这三条研究路线的目标都是开发一个在不确定性下人类信息处理的认知模型，该模型适用于广泛的情况，并且可以用数学表达。 待开发的数学模型的一个应用是作为组合多个主观估计的基础。 第四条工作路线将追求这一目标。 这种方法是新颖的，因为没有其他方法来解决合并判决的问题依赖于单个法官的模型。 ***

9632448 BUDESCU Many decisions under uncertainty depend on expert judgments, because suitable statistical information is lacking. Examples include military and international policy contexts, business forecasting, medical diagnosis, and earthquake prediction. Experts do not always agree with each other, nor do they always express themselves in ways that best reflect their underlying opinions. This research will develop new and improved procedures for eliciting and combining their judgments to yield the most accurate and diagnostic conclusions. The project will investigate factors that affect human judgment under conditions of incomplete knowledge. The research also will develop new analytic procedures for such judgments, which take into account the sources and nature of the random error components that are normally present. One line of the project will ask why, if people are generally truly overconfident, they appear systematically underconfident given specific procedures and methods of analysis. A second line will explore why, at least for some judgment tasks, the way in which people think about uncertain information depends on the type of response they are required to give. A third line will investigate how people learn to make probability estimates and how feedback affects those estimates. The goal of all three lines of research is to develop a cognitive model of human information processing under uncertainty that applies to a broad range of situations, and can be expressed mathematically. One application of the mathematical model to be developed is to serve as a basis for combining multiple subjective estimates. A fourth line of work will pursue this goal. This approach is novel, as no other approach to the issue of combining judgments has depended on a model of the individual judge. ***