Stochastic Linear Modeling of the Planetary Wave Climate of the Stratosphere

9708194罗宾逊 罗宾逊博士将研究平流层行星波-他们的变化，光谱，并与纬向流的相互作用-使用随机强迫线性模型。 这种方法，最近已成功地应用于对流层风暴轨迹，将允许PI和同事们检查对流层和平流层纬向流和定常行星波的瞬态和平流层波的完整和无偏频谱的影响。 将探讨的具体问题是：（1）瞬变和定常波活动在驱动纬向气流方面的相对重要性;（2）平流层波活动受平流层和对流层纬向气流控制的程度，以及纬向气流的年际变化在确定波活动的年际变化方面的重要性;（3）波-波相互作用在调节平流层波活动中的重要性;（4）在没有年际变化边界条件的情况下，波驱动和纬向气流的预期年际变化。 罗宾逊博士是一位理论家，在大气动力学的研究中有效地运用了线性理论。 他将通过将他的理论结果与观测结果进行比较来评估这种方法的成功。 该奖项由气候动力学和大规模动态气象学项目共同支持。

9708194 Robinson Dr. Robinson will study stratospheric planetary waves - their variability, spectra, and interactions with the zonal flow - using a stochastically forced linear model. This approach, which recently has been successfully applied to tropospheric storm tracks, will permit the PI and colleagues to examine the influence of tropospheric and stratospheric zonal flows and stationary planetary waves on a full and unbiased spectrum of transient and traveling stratospheric waves. Specific issues that will be explored are: (1) the relative importance of transient and stationary wave activity in driving the zonal flow; (2) the extent to which stratospheric wave activity is controlled by stratospheric and tropospheric zonal flows, and the importance of interannual variability of the zonal flow in determining interannual variability in wave activity; (3) the importance of wave-wave interactions in regulating stratospheric wave activity; and (4) the expected interannual variability in wave-driving and the zonal flow in the absence of interannually varying boundary conditions. Dr. Robinson is a theoretician with a history of effectively employing linear theory in the study of atmospheric dynamics. He will evaluate the success of this approach by comparing his theoretical results with observations. This award is supported jointly by the Climate Dynamics and Large-scale Dynamic Meteorology Programs.