Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Cyclogenesis

9712925桑德斯这个项目是桑德斯博士和亚利桑那大学马伦博士的合作成果(ATM-9714397)。它涉及调查初始数据不确定性和模式误差对爆炸性气旋发生中期(3-5天)预报的影响和集合预报技术的有用性。主要研究人员正在使用NCAR的社区气候模式(CCM2)进行长期气候模拟的领域，以及对一个典型的爆炸性气旋生成案例的分析和业务预报，该案例是在大西洋上快速增强气旋(ERICA)项目的实验期间观察到的。需要探讨的关键问题包括初始扰动的设计、集合的最小成员数量以及集合预报所需的最低分辨率。本研究成果对业务天气预报有很大的实用价值。

9712925 Sanders This project represents a collaborative effort between Dr. Sanders and Dr. Mullen of the University of Arizona (ATM-9714397). It involves an investigation of the impact of initial data uncertainty and model error on, and the usefulness of ensemble forecasting techniques for, medium range (3-5 day) prediction of explosive cyclogenesis. The principals investigators are employing fields from a long-term climate simulation with NCAR's Community Climate Model (CCM2) as well as analyses and operational forecasts of a classic case of explosive cyclogenesis which was observed during the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) project. Critical issues to be explored include the design of initial perturbations, the minimum number of members for the ensemble and the minimum resolution required for ensemble forecast purposes. The results of this research could be of enormous practical benefit to operational weather forecasting.